-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (HEADER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001 Title : Olive Oil Country-by-Country Dashboard, Annual Edition, May 2026. Past significant events (2022 to May 2026) and forward calendar of significant events (May 2026 to May 2027). Version : 1.1 Status : Active Classification : Internal, founder and advisory Prepared By : PYB / Daralbeida Reviewed By : (pending) Approved By : (pending) Approval Date : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Date Created : 2026-05-10 Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Annual Next Review Due : 2027-05-10 Annual Review : Yes Retention : Permanent reference for Daralbeida operations; superseded by next annual edition (DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_002) Department : MI Style : BPGP Keywords : olive oil, market intelligence, country dashboard, Morocco, Spain, Italy, Tunisia, tariffs, Section 122, MAFTA, sourcing Related Docs : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_001 (snapshot edition); DARX_MI_YEARLY_001 (annual intelligence brief); DARX_MI_RISK_001 (sourcing risk register) Supersedes : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_20260510.txt Superseded By : (none, current version) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Purpose and Scope 2. How to Read This Dashboard 3. Global Summary, 2025/26 vs History 4. Spain 4.1 Position 4.2 Production Arc 4.3 Pricing Signal 4.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 4.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 4.6 Daralbeida Read 5. Italy 5.1 Position 5.2 Production Arc 5.3 Pricing Signal 5.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 5.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 5.6 Daralbeida Read 6. Greece 6.1 Position 6.2 Production Arc 6.3 Pricing Signal 6.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 6.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 6.6 Daralbeida Read 7. Portugal 7.1 Position 7.2 Production Arc 7.3 Pricing Signal 7.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 7.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 7.6 Daralbeida Read 8. Tunisia 8.1 Position 8.2 Production Arc 8.3 Pricing Signal 8.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 8.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 8.6 Daralbeida Read 9. Morocco, Daralbeida's Origin 9.1 Position 9.2 Production Arc 9.3 Pricing Signal 9.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 9.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 9.6 Daralbeida Read 10. Turkey 10.1 Position 10.2 Production Arc 10.3 Pricing Signal 10.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 10.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 10.6 Daralbeida Read 11. United States (Production and Demand) 11.1 Position 11.2 Production Arc 11.3 Pricing Signal (Retail) 11.4 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 11.5 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 11.6 Daralbeida Read 12. European Union (Regulatory and Demand) 12.1 Position 12.2 Past Events (2022 Through May 2026) 12.3 Forward Events (May 2026 Through May 2027) 12.4 Daralbeida Read 13. Emerging and Niche Origins 13.1 Argentina 13.2 Chile 13.3 Brazil 13.4 Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Bosnia 13.5 Australia and New Zealand 13.6 China 14. Advisory Matrix, Updated 15. Four Things That Would Change This Dashboard 15.1 Morocco 2026/27 Weather Event 15.2 Section 122 Successor Regime Adverse To Morocco 15.3 Italian Production Recovery To 350 kt Or Above In 2026/27 15.4 Cobram Estate / California Olive Ranch Aggressive US Push 16. Sources 17. AI Prompts 18. Revision History 19. Acronyms 20. Glossary DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE ================================================================================ This dashboard is the annual edition of the Daralbeida country-by-country olive oil intelligence reference. It complements DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_001 (snapshot edition) by adding two elements the snapshot omits: a structured record of significant past events from 2022 through May 2026 for each country, and a forward calendar of significant events to watch from May 2026 through May 2027. It is the controlling reference for Daralbeida's understanding of the competitive field by origin. Twelve origins are profiled. The first eight are the mainstream producer base. The remaining four are emerging or niche origins relevant to the strategic landscape but not yet at scale. It does not replace the annual intelligence brief (DARX_MI_YEARLY_001) or the sourcing risk register (DARX_MI_RISK_001). It pairs with both. ================================================================================ 2. HOW TO READ THIS DASHBOARD ================================================================================ Each country entry contains six elements: - POSITION. Role in the world market. - PRODUCTION ARC. Five crop years of output, in tonnes. - PRICING SIGNAL. Current and recent benchmark prices. - PAST EVENTS. Significant events from 2022 through May 2026. - FORWARD EVENTS. Events to watch from May 2026 through May 2027. - DARALBEIDA READ. What it means for Daralbeida specifically. The 2025/26 figures cited are provisional pending final IOC publication. The 2026/27 figures are forecast and subject to revision after the Mediterranean flowering window outcome (May to June 2026). ================================================================================ 3. GLOBAL SUMMARY, 2025/26 VS HISTORY ================================================================================ Crop Year Global Production and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2020/21 ~3,010,000 t. Normal pre-drought baseline. 2021/22 ~2,960,000 t. Slight decline; Spain dry. 2022/23 ~2,760,000 t. DROUGHT YEAR I (Spain collapse). 2023/24 ~2,564,000 t. DROUGHT YEAR II (Morocco export ban; price peak). 2024/25 ~3,572,000 t. REBOUND YEAR (+38%). 2025/26 ~3,440,000 t. MODERATION (-4%). 2026/27 ? UNKNOWN. Flowering window May to June 2026 decisive. ================================================================================ 4. SPAIN ================================================================================ 4.1 POSITION Approximately 37 to 40% of world production. Approximately 65% of EU production. The price-setter for global olive oil through the Pool Red Jaen benchmark. 4.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~1,488 2022/23 ~660. Drought collapse, lowest in 9 years. 2023/24 ~854. Partial recovery. 2024/25 ~1,420. +66% rebound. 2025/26 ~1,270 to 1,370. Revised down from 1.44 Mt forecast; AEMO trimmed to ~1.2 Mt after Storm Claudia and prolonged November to December rainfall. 2026/27 To be determined. Soil moisture supportive; flowering decisive; alternate-bearing argues for moderation. 4.3 PRICING SIGNAL Pool Red Jaen EVOO May 2026: EUR 4.50 to 5.00 per kilogram origin. Pool Red Jaen EVOO December 2025: EUR 4.33 per kilogram. Peak (January 2024): above EUR 8.00 per kilogram. Low (mid-2025): approximately EUR 3.59 per kilogram (week ending July 2025). Current EVOO conventional: EUR 4.50 to 5.00 per kilogram. Current EVOO organic: approximately EUR 5.50 per kilogram. 4.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Summer 2022 Heatwave during flowering devastates Andalusian yields. Spring 2023 Multi-year drought formally declared by European Commission JRC. Late 2023 Producer prices peak at approximately EUR 9 per kilogram origin. Spring 2024 Olive oil becomes most-stolen retail product; organized crime operations; bottle padlocks in supermarkets. April 2024 EU HICP for olive oil begins downward trend after +50% YoY peak. Apr to Aug Operation OPSON XIII raids: 45,000 L of sunflower oil 2024 and pomace falsely labeled as EVOO seized. Mid-2025 Pool Red bottoms at approximately EUR 3.59 per kilogram. June 2025 Four sentenced to prison in long-running olive oil fraud case (low-quality oils sold as EVOO with false geography). September 2025 Drought concerns return; lower 2025/26 forecast. November 2025 Storm Claudia and weeks of rain disrupt harvest. December 2025 Spain exports over 1.0 million tonnes for first time since 2021/22. January 2026 Spain announces National Official Control Plan 2026 to 2030; SIMO and REMOA digital traceability deployment. February 2026 Mid-month +EUR 0.30 per kilogram price tick in 15 days, market refusing to soften further. April 2026 AICA: 60% of season volume already moved; stocks 24% below year-ago. May 2026 Production shift: Catalonia rebound, Extremadura gain, Jaen and Cordoba decline. 4.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Late May to FLOWERING WINDOW for 2026/27 (decisive). Jun Late June First fruit-set indicators. Jul to Aug Summer heat watch (Andalusia heat dome risk). 2026 September 2026 Junta de Andalucia AFORO first 2026/27 forecast. October 2026 AICA September stock release (carryover signal into 2026/27). Oct to Nov Harvest begins (Andalusia leads). 2026 Nov to Dec Peak harvest; first 2026/27 Pool Red pricing. 2026 December 2026 Mid-season production data. Q1 2027 Pricing direction firms. 4.6 DARALBEIDA READ Spain is the price-floor benchmark for Daralbeida's own pricing logic. As long as Pool Red holds EUR 4.30 or above per kilogram, Moroccan premium positioning has cost-side headroom. If Spain weakens to EUR 3.50 per kilogram in 2026/27, Daralbeida's USD 26 launch tier remains defensible but the gap to commodity reduces. Italian premium and Spanish bulk are the two ends of the spectrum Daralbeida sits between. Watch Pool Red weekly. Watch Spanish import volume into US monthly. Andalusian floods and frosts in March 2026 demonstrate the weather volatility that keeps the floor sticky. ================================================================================ 5. ITALY ================================================================================ 5.1 POSITION Approximately 7 to 10% of world production in normal years. Premium-positioned with the deepest brand recognition in the US. Historically a net importer (550 kt domestic demand versus approximately 250 to 300 kt domestic production); structural deficit met by Spanish bulk imports rebottled in Italy. 5.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~329 2022/23 ~241 2023/24 ~329 2024/25 ~248. -25%, drought, Xylella, and alternate-bearing. 2025/26 ~300. +30% rebound, Apulia and Calabria led. 2026/27 Recovery hopes with northern shift potential. 5.3 PRICING SIGNAL Bari EVOO May 2026: EUR 6.50 to 7.00 per kilogram. Bari EVOO December 2025: EUR 6.65 per kilogram. Peak (2024): above EUR 9 per kilogram. Premium to Spanish: approximately EUR 2 per kilogram (compressed from peak of approximately EUR 4 per kilogram). 5.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2022 to 24 Drought across central and southern regions; Apulia hit hard. Continuous Xylella fastidiosa pressure ongoing. IOC notes Italian production has fallen from 600 kt 1990s average to 250 kt 2020s. April 2024 OPSON XIII: 42 t of adulterated EVOO seized; 623 L of chlorophyll for adulteration. August 2024 Carabinieri NAS officials publicly explain fraud mechanics. November 2024 Italy mints special PDO and PGI labels for olive oils. Dec 2024 to Prices remain elevated (EUR 9 or above per kg) even 25 as Spanish prices halve, limited stock keeps Italian floor. January 2026 Olive cultivation expansion in northern Italy documented: Piedmont +40%, Friuli +16%, Trentino over 400 hectares. February 2026 Italian Antitrust probe targets supermarket pricing affecting farmers. February 2026 Assitol president declares 2026 a year of "structurally reduced margins" for Italian growers. March 2026 Olive growing returns to Italy's smallest region (Valle d'Aosta), symbolic northward shift. March 2026 Italian SIAN traceability platform expansion. May 2026 Italian organic EVOO into US -38% by value YoY (the most concerning sub-segment data point). 5.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May to Jun Flowering window. Central and northern outlook 2026 improving structurally; southern still volatile. Jul to Sept Olive fruit fly pressure season (warm and humid 2026 conditions accelerate infestations). Oct to Nov Harvest begins (typically earliest among major 2026 producers; Apulia and Calabria first). Nov to Dec NYIOOC 2027 entries open. 2026 Q1 2027 Government revitalization initiatives expected (Italy MASAF and ISMEA programs). Spring 2027 2027/28 outlook, northern expansion accelerating. 5.6 DARALBEIDA READ Italy is the brand benchmark Daralbeida competes against in the premium tier. Italian price compression from EUR 9 to 7 per kilogram narrows Daralbeida's relative pricing advantage but does not eliminate it. The structural Italian story is compelling for Daralbeida: declining domestic production, increasing import dependence, Xylella unresolved, climate stress on Apulia. The "Made in Italy" brand premium is not going away, but the Italian origin is structurally weakening. Daralbeida's positioning should not be "alternative to Italian" but "Mediterranean premium from a different terroir." ================================================================================ 6. GREECE ================================================================================ 6.1 POSITION Approximately 6% of world production typically. Per-capita consumption 9.3 kg, highest in the world. Premium artisanal tradition, especially the Kalamata region. 6.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~245 2022/23 ~351 2023/24 ~190 2024/25 ~250. +30% rebound. 2025/26 ~210. -15%; Crete drought, fruit fly. 2026/27 Peloponnese flowering nodes 15 to 20% above prior year (June 2025 Wikifarmer indicator). 6.3 PRICING SIGNAL Chania EVOO May 2026: EUR 4.70 to 5.10 per kilogram (edged up EUR 0.05 to 0.10 per kilogram in April 2026). Chania EVOO December 2025: EUR 4.65 per kilogram. 6.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2023 Production decline; drought stress. December 2024 Greek EVOO prices halved YoY (EUR 468 per 100 kg). 2025 Robust domestic and international demand sustains high price levels. September 2025 Continuing dryness in Crete reduces output. October 2025 2025/26 Peloponnese forecast: approximately 90 kt; Crete approximately 50 kt. December 2025 Extreme weather damages Greek groves. January 2026 New study ranks areas in Greece most suitable for olive cultivation, research framing for insurance and policy planning. May 2026 Greek prices edged up despite low trading activity. 6.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May to Jun Flowering, early signs from Peloponnese encouraging. 2026 Jul to Aug Drought and pest watch (Crete ongoing concern). 2026 Oct to Dec Harvest; Greek farmers diversifying export channels 2026 (US tariff concerns reducing US-direct exposure). Q1 2027 Athens Olive Oil and Olives Exhibition. Q2 2027 Mario Solinas awards (Greece typically strong). 6.6 DARALBEIDA READ Greece occupies a premium-niche position in the US market. Kalamata and Crete brands command shelf space but at smaller scale than Spain or Italy. Greece is not a primary competitor for Daralbeida's USD 26 launch tier. The relevance is benchmark: Greek prices behave similarly to Spanish on origin; Greek retail in US sits in the USD 20 to 30 per litre range for premium SKUs. Niche. Monitor; do not engage. ================================================================================ 7. PORTUGAL ================================================================================ 7.1 POSITION Approximately 5% of world production. Modernized irrigation infrastructure (Alentejo super-intensive plantings). Quietly displacing Greek position on cost competitiveness. 7.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~125 2022/23 ~125 2023/24 ~161 2024/25 ~177 2025/26 ~150 to 200 2026/27 Strong base; irrigation infrastructure resilient. 7.3 PRICING SIGNAL Portuguese EVOO often trades at or briefly below Spanish origin. In December 2025 / January 2026, Portuguese briefly traded below Spanish, a structural signal that Portuguese is the new competitive pressure point on Spain. 7.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2022 to 23 Modest production through drought (better than Spain due to irrigation). 2024 Continued steady output. 2025 Producers find new path to US market post-tariff uncertainty. Late 2025 Portuguese EVOO trades below Spanish origin (first time in extended period). Q1 2026 Portuguese olive oils gain US specialty retail shelf space. 7.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Spring 2026 Flowering, Alentejo super-intensive groves largely irrigation-protected. Oct to Dec Harvest; expected steady output. 2026 Q1 2027 Continued US specialty retail expansion. 7.6 DARALBEIDA READ Portugal is the rising premium competitor in US specialty retail. Portuguese single-estate brands at USD 20 to 30 per litre are direct shelf competitors for Daralbeida in Year 2 and 3 specialty channel. Portuguese tariff exposure: 10% Section 122 plus MFN, same as Spain and Italy. Portugal lacks the FTA advantage Morocco has. Monitor for branding strategies and shelf placement; not a Year 1 concern. ================================================================================ 8. TUNISIA ================================================================================ 8.1 POSITION Now the world's number 2 producer by volume in 2025/26 (overtaking Italy). Approximately 85% of production exported, mostly bulk to EU and US. The largest competitive threat to North African premium positioning. 8.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~240 2022/23 ~180 2023/24 ~210 2024/25 ~340. +55% rebound. 2025/26 450 to 500. RECORD. 2026/27 Alternate-bearing implies moderation. 8.3 PRICING SIGNAL Tunisia EVOO May 2026: EUR 3.80 to 4.00 per kilogram (April 2026: edged up from EUR 3.40 per kilogram low in late 2025). Tunisia organic May 2026: approximately EUR 3.85 per kilogram. Average export price 2025: TND 7.1 to 18 per kilogram (USD 2.46 to 6.24 per kilogram). Bulk export share: 88.1% of total volume. 8.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── November 2022 Olive oil exports +33% in value, +4.6% volume YoY. April 2025 Tunisia diplomatic effort to avoid 28% IEEPA tariff (later raised to 25% effective July 2025). May to Sept Bulk exports +40% volume but value -28.9%, a pricing 2025 crisis develops. August 2025 Tunisia Technical Centre for Packaging launches promotional campaign for branded packaged exports. October 2025 Record harvest forecast 400 to 500 kt; farmer unrest over collapsing prices. October 2025 Allegations of triangulation fraud through Spain to EU markets at abnormally low prices. November 2025 Italian MEP Nardella formally questions European Commission over Bioliva Med Company EUR 170 M debt plus abnormal export pricing. November 2025 President Kais Saied urges institutional oversight reform; expansion to Asia and Latin America export channels. December 2025 Mercosur agreement signed (Tunisia not party but affected by South American export competition). Q1 2026 Storage capacity crisis. ONH cannot absorb 1.7 Mt olive harvest; producers forced to sell at loss. March 2026 2025 food export revenue -8.5%; olive oil export revenue -16.3% to USD 1.39 B despite +60% volume, fundamental pricing crisis confirmed in official data. April 2026 Tunisian producer Abdelaziz Makhloufi released on bail (state-owned farm Sfax investigation). 8.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May 2026 EU duty-free quota debate (60 kt vs Tunisia push for 100 kt) ongoing. July 2026 US tariff regime resolution, Tunisia bigger beneficiary than EU if Section 122 lapses (effective rate 0% MFN). Q3 2026 Tunisian focus on bottled exports versus bulk expected to expand. Oct to Dec Harvest expectations tempered by alternate-bearing. 2026 Q4 2026 Continued European Parliament investigation of Tunisian fraud allegations. Q1 2027 New US trade rules (Section 301 successor), Morocco watch, Tunisia not in 16-country cohort either. 8.6 DARALBEIDA READ Tunisia is the principal narrative threat to Daralbeida. Cheap Tunisian EVOO into the US at USD 5 to 10 per litre is the value-tier competitor that risks defining "North African olive oil" in US consumer perception. Daralbeida brand voice MUST distinguish Morocco specifically, never use "North African" generic positioning. Tunisia has the volume; Morocco has the FTA, the quality positioning, and the storytelling. Tunisia's structural weakness is bulk-export dependency and the fraud overhang. Daralbeida's structural strength is premium positioning, single-estate provenance, full traceability. The brand must not engage on price; it must engage on identity. ================================================================================ 9. MOROCCO, DARALBEIDA'S ORIGIN ================================================================================ 9.1 POSITION Approximately 6% of world production in good years. Approximately 1.2 million hectares of olive groves (65% of the country's fruit-tree area). Per capita consumption 4.0 kg, high. MAFTA Free Trade Agreement with the US since 2006, UNIQUE among major olive oil exporters to the US. 9.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~200. Record matched once before. 2022/23 ~107 2023/24 ~95. Drought plus Chergui wind damage in Marrakech-Safi region. 2024/25 ~95. Third consecutive low year. 2025/26 ~200. DRAMATIC REBOUND, doubled YoY. 2026/27 Uncertain; alternate-bearing implies moderation but irrigation expansion partially offsets. 9.3 PRICING SIGNAL Domestic retail May 2026: 50 to 60 MAD per litre (EUR 4.50 to 5.50 per litre). Domestic retail 2024 peak: 100 to 120 MAD per litre. Farm-gate olives May 2026: 5 MAD per kilogram. Farm-gate olives 2024 peak: 13 to 15 MAD per kilogram. Premium FOB Casablanca single-estate organic early-harvest: historically USD 8.50 to 14.20 per litre; expect downward pressure into 2026/27 export quotes. Commodity bulk EVOO: EUR 2.50 to 4.50 per litre ex-works. 9.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2022/23 to Two consecutive drought years; production collapse to 23/24 90 to 107 kt range. September 2023 Earthquake in High Atlas region. October 2023 Morocco bans olive oil exports to control domestic prices, important precedent ("major non-NATO ally" Morocco can act unilaterally on supply). May 2024 Olive Oil Times reports Moroccan harvest expected to rebound but headwinds, early optimism premature. January 2025 Morocco olive oil production confirmed third straight year of decline; approximately 90 kt 2024/25. May 2025 North African producers triumph at NYIOOC, 16 awards for Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt. September 2025 Morocco 2025/26 forecast doubles previous year, favourable weather plus irrigation investment. September 2025 Prime Minister Akhannouch announces record harvest expectation; domestic price target 50 to 55 MAD per litre. September 2025 On-tree olive prices crash to 5 to 5.5 MAD per kg. October 2025 Federation of Olive Production confirms approximately 200 kt forecast (versus 95 kt prior year). November 2025 Harvest delayed by late rainfall and cooler autumn temperatures. February 2026 Olive Oil Times: Moroccan harvest "races ahead" amid rain, cold, labour shortages, record yields achieved despite challenges. February 2026 Domestic retail confirmed at 50 to 60 MAD per litre (down approximately 50% YoY). April 2026 IOC Mario Solinas awards include Tunisia and China, but no Moroccan producers mentioned in latest cohort (versus strong showings prior years). 9.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May to Jun Flowering window for 2026/27, THE KEY DATA POINT. 2026 Watch rainfall reports from Fes-Meknes, Marrakech- Safi, Taounate, Beni Mellal-Khenifra regions. June 2026 ONSSA agrement list updates. July 2026 US Section 122 expiry, direct beneficiary if lapses. August 2026 Producer ONSSA process onboarding window for Year 1 Daralbeida producers. September 2026 First 2026/27 harvest forecasts (Interprolive, Federation of Olive Production). Oct to Nov Harvest preparation; producer COA confirmations; 2026 Daralbeida proof-of-concept LCL departure target. November 2026 Main harvest begins (later start than Spain). December 2026 2026/27 production trajectory clarifies. Q1 2027 Domestic price reaction to 2026/27 supply. Q2 2027 NYIOOC 2027 results, Moroccan producer performance signal. 9.6 DARALBEIDA READ This is THE most favourable Year 1 procurement window since the project began. Producer surplus, soft prices, MAFTA mechanics functional, US tariff outcome converging. Three immediate actions: 1. Move 3 producers through DAB_SOP_SOURCING_001 to PRIMARY or BACKUP tier in two distinct regions. 2. Lock FOB Casablanca quotes for September to October pickup BEFORE Mediterranean trade re-prices on 2026/27 signals. 3. Confirm BH preference indicator filing protocol with US trade counsel. Watch the 2026/27 alternate-bearing question carefully. A weak 2026/27 crop would re-tighten producer pricing power going into Year 2 scale-up. A strong 2026/27 would extend the favourable window. Either way, lock Year 1 in this open window. ================================================================================ 10. TURKEY ================================================================================ 10.1 POSITION Approximately 7 to 10% of world production in good years. Massive volatility, alternate-bearing amplified by climate. Strong domestic consumption (approximately 1.2 kg per capita). Major US-export competitor in the value tier. 10.2 PRODUCTION ARC Crop Year Production (kt) and Note ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2021/22 ~235 2022/23 ~450. Record. 2023/24 ~120. Extreme weather collapse. 2024/25 ~505. Record again, +135% YoY. 2025/26 150 to 200. Sharp drop; UZZK official 310 kt forecast versus market analysts 150 to 200 kt; range reflects forecast uncertainty. 2026/27 Recovery from alternate-bearing low expected. 10.3 PRICING SIGNAL Turkish lira depreciation has decoupled Turkish domestic from international pricing. Domestic prices +31% December 2024 to December 2025 (consumer index). Bulk export prices follow Spanish Pool Red. 10.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2022 to 23 Record harvest of 450 kt. 2023 to 24 Extreme weather collapse to 120 kt. February 2025 Turkish farmers struggle despite record harvest, input costs outpace mill prices. July 2025 Turkish exports to Australia surge +162% on bilateral trade push. September 2025 Monsida Turkish premium producer launches global expansion. October 2025 Turkish table olive exports record USD 255 M. December 2025 UZZK 2025/26 forecast 310 kt; analysts predict 150 to 200 kt, wide gap reveals data uncertainty. 10.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May 2026 Spring weather signal for 2026/27. Sep to Oct First reliable 2026/27 harvest indications. 2026 Nov to Dec Harvest; recovery year expected. 2026 Q1 2027 Domestic versus international pricing decoupling continues with lira movements. 10.6 DARALBEIDA READ Turkey is volume-significant but quality-segmented. Premium Turkish brands compete in the same niche as Greek; mass-market Turkish bulk exports compete with Tunisia. Lira volatility makes Turkey unreliable as a benchmark. Not a Year 1 priority. Watch as Turkey rebuilds from 2025/26 low, could pressure bulk Mediterranean prices in 2026/27 if the rebuild is strong. ================================================================================ 11. UNITED STATES (PRODUCTION AND DEMAND) ================================================================================ 11.1 POSITION Less than 2% of US consumption. Approximately 10 kt domestic production, primarily California. The largest single olive oil import market in the world by value. 11.2 PRODUCTION ARC Domestic production has hovered around 10 kt for several years. California 2025 NYIOOC: 92 awards (record). Growers face weather and labour challenges but quality continues to advance. 11.3 PRICING SIGNAL (RETAIL) Premium California single-estate: USD 20 to 35 per 750 ml. Mass-premium California (e.g. California Olive Ranch): USD 12 to 18 per litre. Imported premium Italian and Spanish: USD 20 to 40 per litre. Imported value Tunisian and Spanish bulk: USD 8 to 15 per litre. Daralbeida launch tier: USD 26 per 0.5 L (USD 52 per litre on value basis but priced at premium-tier shelf). 11.4 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2022 to 24 Massive consumer price inflation; 78% rise 2022 to 24 in EU but mirrored in US. Spring 2024 Olive oil shoplifting wave in US retail reflecting Spain dynamic. 2024 US imports USD 2.61 B; Italy USD 1.06 B (36.2% market share by value), Spain 32.5%, Tunisia approximately USD 300 M plus. April 2025 20% IEEPA reciprocal tariff on EU; 28% Tunisia; 10% Morocco. July 2025 Tunisia tariff 25%, EU at 15% framework. 2025 Total US EVOO imports -22.2% YoY through 10 months; Italy -20%, Spain -23.2%, Tunisia -25%, Argentina -38.3%. December 2025 Cobram Estate / California Olive Ranch acquisition USD 173.5 M closes. January 2026 HR 6747 Olive Oil Standards Act introduced (Harder / Valadao bipartisan). January 2026 US olive oil consumption forecast record 478,000 MT 2025/26. Feb 20, 2026 SCOTUS strikes IEEPA in V.O.S. Selections case. Feb 24, 2026 Section 122 baseline tariff implemented at 10%. Feb 26, 2026 Section 122 raised to 15% statutory cap. Mar 11, 2026 USTR opens Section 301 investigations into 16 economies (Morocco NOT included). Apr 20, 2026 CBP CAPE refund portal opens for IEEPA refunds. Early May 2026 CIT strikes down Section 122 (collection continues pending appeal). 11.5 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── June 2026 SCOTUS appeal status on Section 122. July 24, 2026 SECTION 122 STATUTORY EXPIRY. Q3 2026 USTR Section 301 recommendations and successor tariff structure. September 2026 New marketing year begins (November to October cycle). October 2026 First 2026/27 import data. Q4 2026 HR 6747 markup or floor action (uncertain). Q1 2027 Mid-cycle import volume signal. April 2027 New York Olive Oil Times Sommelier Program schedule continues. Q2 2027 Antidumping reviews on Spanish ripe olives (separate but adjacent to oil). 11.6 DARALBEIDA READ US is the home market. Demand is strong and structural; tariff is binary in the next 90 days; consolidation favours premium-tier brands; the standards movement favours single-estate provenance. Daralbeida's launch is well-timed against this backdrop, not "in spite of" the trade environment but partly because of it. ================================================================================ 12. EUROPEAN UNION (REGULATORY AND DEMAND) ================================================================================ 12.1 POSITION Approximately 60% of world production (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal in rank order). Approximately 40% of world consumption. Major exporter to the US, UK, Brazil, Japan, and Asia. 12.2 PAST EVENTS (2022 THROUGH MAY 2026) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── April 2024 EU HICP for olive oil begins downtrend. 2024 to 25 OPSON XIII operations; major fraud seizures. January 2026 EU Court of Auditors: gaps in olive oil control enforcement despite robust framework. Jan 17, 2026 EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement signed (ratification pending Parliament plus ECJ). Jan 22, 2026 Olive Oil Sector weighs Mercosur opportunities and risks; Spanish, Italian, and Greek table olive associations push back. Jan 27, 2026 EU-India FTA negotiations CONCLUDED, India tariff up to 45% phased to 0% over 5 years pending ratification. February 2026 European table olive groups push back on EU-Mercosur tariff terms. April 2026 Mario Solinas Quality Awards (123 EVOOs juried). 12.3 FORWARD EVENTS (MAY 2026 THROUGH MAY 2027) Date Event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Q3 2026 European Parliament debate on Mercosur ratification. Q3 to Q4 EU-India FTA legal ratification process. 2026 Q4 2026 EU Agricultural Outlook 2026 publication. Throughout Spain National Official Control Plan implementation; Tunisia EU quota negotiations. Q1 2027 EU Common Agricultural Policy reviews. Q2 2027 WTO ripe-olives compliance follow-up. 12.4 DARALBEIDA READ The EU regulatory direction (traceability, enforcement, premium protection) is tailwind for Daralbeida positioning. The EU is not Daralbeida's launch market but EU regulation sets global premium-tier standards. Mercosur ratification would open South America for EU producers; if non-ratification or delay, EU producers stay focused on US, pressure on Daralbeida unchanged. ================================================================================ 13. EMERGING AND NICHE ORIGINS ================================================================================ 13.1 ARGENTINA Counter-seasonal harvest. 2025 production declining for 2nd straight year (June 2025). Argentina exports to US fell -38.3% in 2025, steepest decline of any origin. Mendoza and San Juan are primary regions. Subject to climate volatility and Argentine domestic economic turmoil. Past: 2024/25 production decline continues; quality strong but volumes uneconomic at current global prices. Forward: 2027 Southern Hemisphere harvest (Q2 2027) recovery potential. Daralbeida read: Counter-seasonal, similar to Chile, useful as a procurement hedge if Daralbeida ever needs to extend Year 2 inventory through summer. Not a Year 1 concern. Watch as a potential secondary origin for blending in Year 3 or later if Daralbeida launches a different SKU. 13.2 CHILE Counter-seasonal. Approximately 25 kt production. NYIOOC quality consistently high. US shelf presence growing in the premium tier. Past: 2025 NYIOOC strong showing; counter-seasonal supply positioning stronger as Northern Hemisphere weather volatility rises. Forward: 2026 Southern Hemisphere harvest just concluded; expansion in California-style dry farming. Daralbeida read: Same strategic role as Argentina. Niche. Monitor. 13.3 BRAZIL Counter-seasonal. Minas Gerais leading. 2026 early reports signal record year. Strong domestic Brazilian consumption growth driving expansion. Past: Imports fell 11% in 2023/24; recovering in 2024/25. March 2026: Early harvest signals record year in Brazil's Minas Gerais. Forward: Brazilian domestic production rising; potentially a meaningful exporter by 2030. Daralbeida read: Brazil is a long-tail growth story. Not Year 1. Could be relevant for Year 5 or later international expansion consideration. 13.4 CROATIA, SLOVENIA, MONTENEGRO, BOSNIA Adriatic premium tier. Croatia: 125 awards at 2025 NYIOOC (versus Italy and Spain). Quality consistently top-tier. Volumes small but premium positioning unmatched. Past: 2025 Croatian record at NYIOOC; Postira Symposium 2025; Brac World Olive Picking Championship October 2025. February 2026: Montenegro Silver Award debut at NYIOOC. February 2026: Bosnian monastery 3 Gold awards at NYIOOC. Forward: Continued quality competition presence; potential US specialty-retail positioning. Daralbeida read: Quality competitors in USD 30 to 60 per litre specialty retail tier. Not direct Daralbeida competitors at USD 26 launch. Selo Olive Oil and similar Adriatic brands position similarly to where Daralbeida wants to land in Year 3, useful brand benchmarks. 13.5 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND Counter-seasonal. Cobram Estate dominant. Approximately 25 kt Australian production. 2024 to 25 Australian harvest recovering. New Zealand small but growing. Past: April 2025 AOOA "Get Drizzling" campaign; July 2025 Turkish exports to Australia +162%. December 2025: Cobram acquires California Olive Ranch, major global premium player consolidation. Forward: Cobram Estate now has US production plus import plus premium portfolio, significant US shelf presence to watch. Daralbeida read: Cobram is a serious premium competitor in the US shelf. Watch their pricing and brand strategy as they integrate California Olive Ranch. 13.6 CHINA Approximately 1 kt domestic production, growing. Imports growing 10% or more per year but per-capita consumption negligible. Not yet a US shelf factor. Past: December 2025 China production climbing; 2024 to 25 China output highest yet. Forward: Continued domestic expansion; not a 2027 export story yet. Daralbeida read: Not relevant for Year 1. Watch for Year 5 or later international expansion consideration. ================================================================================ 14. ADVISORY MATRIX, UPDATED ================================================================================ The matrix below summarizes the strategic posture per origin across four dimensions. Null cell = "-". Origin Sourcing Window and Pricing Pressure ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── MOROCCO Sourcing window: OPEN. Pricing pressure: FAVOURABLE. Spain Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: FIRM-SOFT. Italy Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: COMPRESSING. Greece Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: FIRM. Portugal Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: SOFTENING. Tunisia Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: AGGRESSIVE. Turkey Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: VOLATILE. USA (CA) Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: -. Argentina Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: -. Chile Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: -. Brazil Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: -. Croatia / Adriatic Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: -. Australia Sourcing window: -. Pricing pressure: -. Origin Brand Threat and Overall Posture ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── MOROCCO Brand threat: n/a. Overall posture: EXECUTE. Spain Brand threat: PRIMARY. Overall posture: BENCHMARK. Italy Brand threat: PREMIUM. Overall posture: MONITOR. Greece Brand threat: NICHE. Overall posture: LOW PRIORITY. Portugal Brand threat: EMERGING. Overall posture: MONITOR. Tunisia Brand threat: VALUE. Overall posture: COUNTER-NARRATIVE. Turkey Brand threat: LOW. Overall posture: IGNORE Y1. USA (CA) Brand threat: CONSOLIDATED. Overall posture: WATCH COBRAM. Argentina Brand threat: LOW. Overall posture: IGNORE Y1. Chile Brand threat: NICHE. Overall posture: IGNORE Y1. Brazil Brand threat: LOW. Overall posture: WATCH Y3+. Croatia / Adriatic Brand threat: QUALITY-PEER. Overall posture: BRAND BENCH. Australia Brand threat: COBRAM. Overall posture: WATCH. ================================================================================ 15. FOUR THINGS THAT WOULD CHANGE THIS DASHBOARD ================================================================================ 15.1 MOROCCO 2026/27 WEATHER EVENT A drought-driven crop collapse to under 120 kt would: 1. Flip Daralbeida sourcing from EXECUTE to DEFENSIVE. 2. Trigger consideration of export restrictions (precedent October 2023). 3. Delay Year 2 scale plans. 4. Force re-pricing of Daralbeida's Launch Tier toward USD 28 to 29. 15.2 SECTION 122 SUCCESSOR REGIME ADVERSE TO MOROCCO Very low probability (Morocco not in Section 301 cohort) but if it happens: 1. Morocco's structural FTA advantage erodes further. 2. Tunisia at same effective rate becomes a more direct volume threat. 3. Daralbeida margin compression; price architecture revisit. 15.3 ITALIAN PRODUCTION RECOVERY TO 350 KT OR ABOVE IN 2026/27 Italian premium pricing collapses further to EUR 5 to 6 per kilogram. 1. Italian organic into US continues to struggle. 2. Daralbeida USD 26 looks expensive versus Italian organic at USD 20 to 24. 3. Brand work on Morocco-specific provenance becomes critical. 15.4 COBRAM ESTATE / CALIFORNIA OLIVE RANCH AGGRESSIVE US PUSH 1. Premium-tier shelf intensification. 2. Marketing-driven reset of "premium olive oil" definition in the US consumer mind. 3. Daralbeida benefits from category education but loses mindshare unless brand work is sharp. 4. Watch for January to March 2027 marketing campaign signals. ================================================================================ 16. SOURCES ================================================================================ IOC Statistics Dashboard (production, balances, prices). USDA FAS Production Supply and Distribution database. Junta de Andalucia AFORO; Spain MAPA; AICA monthly stocks. ISMEA Italy; ICQRF Frantoio Italia; MASAF. Olive Oil Times country topics (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, USA). Certified Origins monthly market reports. Wikifarmer monthly olive oil reports. Tridge Spain olive oil market overview 2026. ONAGRI Tunisia (National Observatory of Agriculture). Onssa.gov.ma; Interprolive Morocco. PitchBook (M&A: California Olive Ranch / Cobram acquisition). Congress.gov H.R. 6747. US CBP MAFTA pages; USTR Morocco FTA documents. Federal Register 2026-02875 (Spanish ripe olives AD review). IMF / FRED Global Olive Oil Price benchmark. Pool Red origin price benchmark. Oleista origin price tracker. ================================================================================ 17. AI PROMPTS ================================================================================ The following prompt regenerates next year's annual edition of this dashboard. Replace the editable tokens in [SQUARE_BRACKETS] before running. ================================================================================ START OF PROMPT ================================================================================ You are a market intelligence analyst for Daralbeida, a premium Moroccan olive oil brand launching in the United States. Produce the annual edition of the country-by-country olive oil dashboard for the edition month [EDITION_MONTH_YEAR]. Profile these origins in order: Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, United States, European Union, then emerging and niche origins (Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Adriatic, Australia and New Zealand, China). For each mainstream origin give six elements: Position, Production Arc (five crop years in tonnes), Pricing Signal (current and recent benchmark prices), Past Events from [PAST_WINDOW_START] through [EDITION_MONTH_YEAR], Forward Events from [EDITION_MONTH_YEAR] through [FORWARD_WINDOW_END], and a Daralbeida Read on strategic implications. Cite every figure to a named source (IOC, USDA FAS, Pool Red, Olive Oil Times, Junta de Andalucia AFORO, ONAGRI, Interprolive, and similar). Close with an Advisory Matrix (sourcing window, pricing pressure, brand threat, overall posture per origin) and a list of factors that would change the dashboard. Flag the Morocco 2026/27 flowering window and the US Section 122 tariff timeline as the two decisive variables for the [LAUNCH_TIER_USD] launch tier. Author the output in BPGP v3.1 format. ================================================================================ END OF PROMPT ================================================================================ ================================================================================ 18. REVISION HISTORY ================================================================================ Ver Date Author and Summary of Changes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1.0 2026-05-10 PYB / Daralbeida. Initial issue (BPGP reformat of DARX_DASHBOARD_COUNTRY_YEARLY_001 dated 2026-05-10). 1.1 2026-06-13 PYB / Daralbeida. Reformatted to BPGP v3.1 standard; added OUTLINE sub-section entries, AI Prompts, Revision History, Acronyms, and Glossary as numbered sections; converted tables to U+2500 separators; content preserved without change. ================================================================================ 19. ACRONYMS ================================================================================ AD Antidumping (US trade case category) AEMO Asociacion Espanola de Municipios del Olivo AFORO Junta de Andalucia annual production forecast AICA Spanish Olive Oil Industry Authority AOOA Australian Olive Oil Association BH Special Program Indicator for the US-Morocco FTA preference CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPE CBP refund portal name CBP US Customs and Border Protection CIT Court of International Trade (US) COA Certificate of Analysis CVD Countervailing Duty DAB Daralbeida (operational document prefix) DARX Daralbeida (organisational document prefix) ECJ European Court of Justice EFSA European Food Safety Authority EU European Union EUR Euro (currency) EVOO Extra Virgin Olive Oil FBA Fulfilled by Amazon FDA US Food and Drug Administration FOB Free On Board (Incoterm) FTA Free Trade Agreement HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices HORECA Hotel, Restaurant, Cafe (foodservice channel) HR 6747 US House of Representatives Bill 6747 HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule (United States) IEEPA International Emergency Economic Powers Act IMF International Monetary Fund IOC International Olive Council ISMEA Istituto di Servizi per il Mercato Agricolo Alimentare Kg Kilogram Kt Thousand tonnes L Litre LCL Less than Container Load M Million MAD Moroccan Dirham (currency) MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement MAPA Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food MASAF Italian Ministry of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forests MEP Member of the European Parliament MFN Most Favored Nation (tariff rate) Mt Million tonnes MT Metric tonne NAS Carabinieri Anti-Adulteration and Public Health Unit NYIOOC New York International Olive Oil Competition ONAGRI National Observatory of Agriculture (Tunisia) ONH Office National de l'Huile (Tunisia) ONSSA National Office of Food Safety (Morocco) OPSON Europol/Interpol food fraud operation series PDO Protected Designation of Origin PGI Protected Geographical Indication Q1 First quarter of calendar year Q2 Second quarter of calendar year Q3 Third quarter of calendar year Q4 Fourth quarter of calendar year SCOTUS Supreme Court of the United States SIAN Italian olive oil traceability system SIMO Spanish olive oil traceability system SKU Stock Keeping Unit SOP Standard Operating Procedure T Tonnes TND Tunisian Dinar (currency) US United States USD US Dollar (currency) USDA United States Department of Agriculture USTR Office of the United States Trade Representative UZZK Turkish National Olive and Olive Oil Council WTO World Trade Organization Y1 Year 1 of Daralbeida launch Y2 Year 2 of Daralbeida launch Y3 Year 3 of Daralbeida launch YoY Year-on-year ================================================================================ 20. GLOSSARY ================================================================================ Adriatic Origins Olive oils produced in the eastern Adriatic coast region, principally from Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Recognized for top-tier quality (Croatia received 125 awards at the 2025 NYIOOC) but small absolute production volumes. Alternate-Bearing The biological cycle in which olive trees produce high yields one year and significantly lower yields the following year as the tree allocates energy to vegetative recovery. Brand-Equity Tier Third tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 32 per 0.5L bottle. Demand-Signal Tier Second tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 28 to 29 per 0.5L bottle. EU Duty-Free Quota The annual volume of olive oil imports that may enter the European Union from Tunisia at zero duty under the Association Agreement. The current quota is approximately 60,000 tonnes per year. Launch Tier First tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 26 per 0.5L bottle. Mafta United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement. Entered into force January 1, 2006. Provides duty-free entry of Moroccan olive oil under HTS 1509.10.4000 when claimed via Special Program Indicator BH on the customs entry summary. Pool Red Industry pricing benchmark for Spanish Pool Red Jaen weekly producer prices. Functions as the de facto global olive oil price reference. Section 122 Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974, authorising temporary import surcharges of up to 15% ad valorem for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits. Invoked February 24, 2026; statutory expiry July 24, 2026. Section 301 Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974, authorising USTR investigations and country-specific tariffs in response to unfair trade practices. USTR opened investigations into 16 economies on March 11, 2026. Morocco is not among the 16. Single-Estate A provenance claim indicating that all olives in the product originate from a single producer estate, with chain-of-custody documented from grove to bottle. Xylella Fastidiosa A xylem-limited bacterial pathogen that causes Olive Quick Decline Syndrome and other plant diseases. First detected in Italy (Apulia) in 2013 and uncontained as of March 2026 per EFSA assessment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001 Version : 1.1 Status : Active Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Annual Next Review Due : 2027-05-10 Annual Review : Yes Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Distribution : Internal, founder and advisory Review Triggers : Mandatory refresh upon (a) Section 122 resolution by July 24, 2026, (b) any country-level weather event materially altering 2026/27 production outlook, (c) Cobram Estate or other major industry M&A event, or (d) USTR Section 301 announcement affecting the 16-country cohort. COMPLIANCE : Country-level production figures for 2025/26 are provisional pending final IOC publication. Tariff citations are time-sensitive to May 10, 2026 and must be re-verified before any external use. The advisory matrix is a Daralbeida internal posture document; the ratings reflect strategic priority for the founder and must not be shared with suppliers or competitors as they would reveal procurement intent and competitive read. Revision History: See Section 18. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF DOCUMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------