-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (HEADER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_FORECAST_001 Title : Olive Oil Price-Movement Forecast, Twelve-month horizon, May 2026 to May 2027, Tailored to Daralbeida procurement strategy Version : 1.1 Status : Active Classification : Internal, founder and advisory Prepared By : PYB / Daralbeida Reviewed By : (pending) Approved By : (pending) Approval Date : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Date Created : 2026-05-10 Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Quarterly refresh Next Review Due : 2026-09-13 Annual Review : Yes Retention : Duration of Year 1 launch program plus seven years Department : MI Style : BPGP Keywords : olive oil, price forecast, EVOO, FOB Casablanca, Pool Red Jaen, procurement, scenario tree, market intelligence Related Docs : DARX_MI_RISK_001, DARX_MI_YEARLY_001 Supersedes : DARX_MI_FORECAST_20260510.txt Superseded By : (none, current version) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Purpose and Scope 2. Headline Forecast 3. What Is Driving Price 3.1 Floor Mechanisms (Why Prices Are Not Collapsing) 3.2 Ceiling Mechanisms (Why Prices Are Not Spiking) 4. Procurement-Strategy Overlay 4.1 Proof-of-Concept (May to Aug 2026) 4.2 Year 1 Follow-on (Sept to Dec 2026) 4.3 Year 2 Contracting (Dec 2026 to Mar 2027) 5. Scenario Tree, 2026/27 Crop 5.1 Scenario A, Strong Morocco 2026/27 (Probability ~35%) 5.2 Scenario B, Normal Morocco 2026/27 (Probability ~40%) 5.3 Scenario C, Weak Morocco 2026/27 (Probability ~25%) 6. Reference Benchmark Path, Pool Red Jaen 7. Signals That Would Change the Forecast 8. Bottom Line for the Founder 9. Sources 10. AI Prompts 11. Revision History 12. Acronyms 13. Glossary DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE ================================================================================ This forecast covers the twelve-month period from May 2026 to May 2027 for premium Moroccan EVOO FOB Casablanca, the cost-side reference for Daralbeida procurement. Spanish Pool Red Jaen bulk prices serve as the cross-reference benchmark. The forecast is built around Daralbeida's specific procurement timeline: the Year 1 proof-of-concept LCL shipment of 100 to 500 units in Q3 2026, the Year 1 follow-on shipments of approximately 3,500 units across Q4 2026 to Q2 2027, and the Year 2 contracted volume sized after Q1 2027. It is a probabilistic forecast, not a point estimate. Three scenarios (Strong, Normal, Weak Morocco 2026/27) are weighted and mapped to specific Daralbeida procurement decisions. For tariff scenario detail, see DARX_MI_RISK_001. For full multi-year context, see DARX_MI_YEARLY_001. ================================================================================ 2. HEADLINE FORECAST ================================================================================ The 2025/26 crop is finishing into a market that has refused to correct downward despite ample volume. Spanish origin is locked near EUR 4.60/kg. The next inflection point is the Mediterranean flowering window in May to June 2026, which sets the trajectory for the 2026/27 crop. Daralbeida's Year 1 procurement decisions sit between these two facts. Most likely twelve-month path for premium Moroccan EVOO FOB Casablanca, early-harvest, FFA 0.5% maximum: Period Price Band (USD/L) Notes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May to Jul 2026 7.50 to 9.00 Current window; soft Aug to Oct 2026 7.00 to 8.50 Post-tariff resolution; supply expectations clear Nov to Dec 2026 6.50 to 9.50 New crop; wide band by weather Jan to Mar 2027 7.00 to 10.00 Post-harvest price discovery Apr to May 2027 stabilizes Within new-crop band For Daralbeida specifically: there is a clear case for procuring Year 1 volume in the May to October 2026 window before the 2026/27 new-crop signal arrives. The downside of waiting is meaningfully larger than the downside of moving. ================================================================================ 3. WHAT IS DRIVING PRICE ================================================================================ 3.1 FLOOR MECHANISMS (WHY PRICES ARE NOT COLLAPSING) - Spanish carryover stock 24% below year-ago at end-2025. - Approximately 60% of 2025/26 Spanish volume already moved by April 2026. - Structural cost inflation: irrigation, labour, transport. - Industry consensus that pre-2022 prices (USD 3 to 4/L bulk) are not returning. - Premium tier (single-estate, low FFA, early-harvest) consistently traded at 80 to 150% premium to commodity bulk. 3.2 CEILING MECHANISMS (WHY PRICES ARE NOT SPIKING) - Morocco doubled production for 2025/26. - Tunisia at full export momentum, undercutting EU. - Italy at +30% rebound, easing global tightness. - US import demand contracted 22% in 2025. - Demand destruction from the 2023/24 spike has lingered. - Section 122 / tariff structure has dampened US import volumes. The cross-currents have produced an unusually narrow trading range for what is normally a volatile market. ================================================================================ 4. PROCUREMENT-STRATEGY OVERLAY ================================================================================ Daralbeida's procurement timeline: Stage Volume Target Window ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Year 1 proof-of-concept LCL 100 to 500 u Q3 2026 Year 1 follow-on shipments ~3,500 units Q4 2026 to Q2 2027 Year 2 contracted volume to be sized Post-Q1 2027 4.1 PROOF-OF-CONCEPT (MAY TO AUG 2026) Buy window: OPEN. Forecast price band: USD 7.50 to 9.00/L FOB premium single-estate. Recommendation: Execute in this window. Rationale: Producer surplus, soft domestic Moroccan market, MAFTA mechanics functional, Section 122 outcome resolves either way within the shipment lead time. Hedging: Lock FOB foreign exchange rate at PO issuance with 30/70 payment terms. 4.2 YEAR 1 FOLLOW-ON (SEPT TO DEC 2026) Buy window: TIMING. Forecast price band: USD 7.00 to 8.50/L pre-new-crop; USD 6.50 to 9.50/L overlapping with new-crop. Recommendation: Place 60 to 70% of follow-on volume in September lock, with 30 to 40% optionality for the new-crop signal in November. Rationale: The forecast band tightens before harvest and widens after. Locking the larger share at pre-harvest pricing reduces downside exposure to a weak 2026/27 crop. The retained optionality captures upside if the new crop comes in strong. Trigger to release optionality: Morocco production estimate above 180,000 tonnes with on-tree olive prices at or below 6 MAD/kg. 4.3 YEAR 2 CONTRACTING (DEC 2026 TO MAR 2027) Buy window: TBD. Forecast price band: USD 7.00 to 10.00/L (wide; weather-dependent). Recommendation: Negotiate Year 2 contracts with indexed pricing, NOT fixed. Rationale: The 2026/27 outcome cannot be modelled with confidence in May 2026. Indexed pricing (Pool Red benchmark plus agreed differential, or plus or minus X% band tied to producer's regional ONSSA-validated yield) protects both parties. Backstop option: If indexed pricing is rejected by the supplier, take a smaller fixed-price commitment with right of first refusal on incremental volume. ================================================================================ 5. SCENARIO TREE, 2026/27 CROP ================================================================================ The twelve-month forecast resolves materially around the November 2026 harvest. Three plausible scenarios, with Daralbeida cost implications. 5.1 SCENARIO A, STRONG MOROCCO 2026/27 (PROBABILITY ~35%) Driver: Adequate spring 2026 rainfall, good flowering, continued investment paying off. Outcome: Morocco production at or above 200,000 tonnes; second consecutive strong year (alternate-bearing partially overcome by irrigation expansion). Price impact: Premium FOB Casablanca eases to USD 6.00 to 7.50/L by Q1 2027. Daralbeida implication: Year 2 contracts at favourable terms; consider accelerating volume growth ahead of plan (5,000 to 7,000 units Year 2 instead of model assumption). 5.2 SCENARIO B, NORMAL MOROCCO 2026/27 (PROBABILITY ~40%) Driver: Mixed spring conditions, alternate-bearing pulls yield down to approximately 150,000 tonnes (still above the 90,000 t drought floor). Outcome: Returns toward Morocco's mid-cycle norm. Price impact: Premium FOB Casablanca settles at USD 7.00 to 8.50/L through 2027. Daralbeida implication: Year 2 plan executes as modeled; landed cost assumptions hold; pricing tier architecture works as designed. 5.3 SCENARIO C, WEAK MOROCCO 2026/27 (PROBABILITY ~25%) Driver: Drought returns or flowering damage from heat or late frost; alternate-bearing biology dominates. Outcome: Morocco production drops to 100,000 to 130,000 tonnes. Price impact: Premium FOB Casablanca rises to USD 9.00 to 12.00/L; domestic Moroccan retail re-inflates above 80 MAD/L; possible export restriction consideration (Morocco implemented an export ban in October 2023 under similar conditions). Daralbeida implication: Year 2 volume held at Year 1 level or modestly below; pricing architecture pushes Demand-Signal and Brand-Equity tiers earlier; the plus-or-minus 20% volume flex clause in producer contract becomes critical; FFA specification defended absolutely (do not relax to 0.8% maximum even if cost pressure tempts). ================================================================================ 6. REFERENCE BENCHMARK PATH, POOL RED JAEN ================================================================================ Period Pool Red EVOO (EUR/kg) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Apr 2024 peak ~8.00 (drought-driven) Sep 2025 (early 25/26) ~4.30 Dec 2025 ~4.33 (EUR 433 per 100 kg) Apr 2026 (current) ~4.60 Aug 2026 (forecast) 4.30 to 5.00 (sticky) Nov 2026 (forecast) 4.00 to 5.50 (new-crop) Mar 2027 (forecast) 3.80 to 6.00 (wider band) Daralbeida's premium FOB positioning typically runs at a USD 4 to 7/L premium to Pool Red bulk reference, reflecting the single-estate, FFA 0.5% maximum, polyphenol-rich quality tier. ================================================================================ 7. SIGNALS THAT WOULD CHANGE THE FORECAST ================================================================================ Direction Signal ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Price-Down Morocco rainfall above 150% of norm May to June 2026 Price-Down USTR Section 301 leaves Morocco out of cohort Price-Down Section 122 lapses without replacement Price-Down Tunisia maintains aggressive US export pricing Price-Down US consumer demand softens further Price-Down Italy 2026/27 maintains rebound Price-Up Andalusia frost or May 2026 heat dome Price-Up Morocco labour shortage extends through harvest Price-Up Tariff regime expanded rather than reduced Price-Up Carryover stocks drop below 600,000 tonnes (Spain end-of-season) Price-Up Climate event in Tunisia (rare but possible) ================================================================================ 8. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE FOUNDER ================================================================================ Buy Year 1 in the open window. Lock 60 to 70% of follow-on volume in September. Negotiate Year 2 indexed, not fixed. Hold the launch pricing architecture. The cost-side relief is real but narrow, and demand-side soft signals argue for velocity over unit margin in Year 1. The biggest single risk to the model is not on the supply or cost side. It is the trade-policy regime that resolves between July 24 and the November harvest. Build the contract structure that survives all three plausible outcomes. ================================================================================ 9. SOURCES ================================================================================ International Olive Council monthly statistics. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Junta de Andalucia AFORO. AICA Spain monthly stocks. Pool Red benchmark. Oleista origin price tracker. IMF / FRED Global Olive Oil Price benchmark. ONAGRI Tunisia. Onssa.gov.ma. Interprolive Morocco. Olive Oil Times country topics. Certified Origins monthly market reports. Filippo Berio UK and Bono USA executive commentary. Federal Register Section 122 notices. CBP MAFTA pages. ================================================================================ 10. AI PROMPTS ================================================================================ The prompt below regenerates or stress-tests this forecast. Replace the bracketed tokens with current values before running. ================================================================================ START OF PROMPT ================================================================================ You are a market-intelligence analyst for Daralbeida Brands LLC. Produce a twelve-month price-movement forecast for premium Moroccan EVOO FOB Casablanca (early-harvest, FFA [MAX_FFA]% maximum) covering [START_MONTH_YEAR] to [END_MONTH_YEAR], cross-referenced to Spanish Pool Red Jaen bulk EUR/kg. Build it as a probabilistic forecast with three weighted scenarios (Strong, Normal, Weak Morocco crop) and map each scenario to these procurement stages: proof-of-concept LCL of [POC_UNITS] units, follow-on of [FOLLOWON_UNITS] units, and Year 2 contracted volume. State floor mechanisms, ceiling mechanisms, a month-by-month USD/L price band table, a Pool Red benchmark path table, and price-up / price-down signal lists. Cite sources including the International Olive Council, USDA FAS, Junta de Andalucia AFORO, and ONSSA. Preserve every figure, percentage, and date exactly; do not round or summarize. ================================================================================ END OF PROMPT ================================================================================ ================================================================================ 11. REVISION HISTORY ================================================================================ Ver Date Author Summary of Changes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1.0 2026-05-10 PYB / Daralbeida Initial issue (BPGP reformat of DARX-FORECAST-PRICE-001 dated 2026-05-10). 1.1 2026-06-13 PYB / Daralbeida Reformatted to BPGP v3.1: expanded header/footer control blocks, added AI Prompts, Revision History, Acronyms, Glossary as numbered sections; restructured signal and price-band tables with U+2500 separators. Content unchanged. ================================================================================ 12. ACRONYMS ================================================================================ AFORO Junta de Andalucia annual production forecast AICA Spanish Olive Oil Industry Authority CBP US Customs and Border Protection EU European Union EUR Euro (currency) EVOO Extra Virgin Olive Oil FFA Free Fatty Acid FOB Free On Board (Incoterm) FRED Federal Reserve Economic Data (St. Louis Fed database) FX Foreign Exchange IMF International Monetary Fund IOC International Olive Council Kg Kilogram L Litre LCL Less than Container Load MAD Moroccan Dirham (currency) MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement ONAGRI National Observatory of Agriculture (Tunisia) ONSSA National Office of Food Safety (Morocco) PO Purchase Order PYB Founder initials, Daralbeida Q1 First quarter of calendar year Q2 Second quarter of calendar year Q3 Third quarter of calendar year Q4 Fourth quarter of calendar year T Tonnes (metric) TBD To Be Determined USD US Dollar (currency) USDA United States Department of Agriculture USTR Office of the United States Trade Representative Y1 Year 1 of Daralbeida launch Y2 Year 2 of Daralbeida launch ================================================================================ 13. GLOSSARY ================================================================================ Brand-Equity Tier Third tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 32 per 0.5L bottle. Demand-Signal Tier Second tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 28 to 29 per 0.5L bottle. Indexed Pricing Contractual pricing mechanism where the unit price paid is calculated by reference to a published benchmark (such as Pool Red Jaen weekly producer price) plus an agreed differential, or by a percentage band tied to a measurable input. Reduces speculative exposure for both buyer and seller compared to fixed pricing. Launch Tier First tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 26 per 0.5L bottle. Pool Red Industry pricing benchmark for Spanish Pool Red Jaen weekly producer prices. Functions as the de facto global olive oil price reference. Volume Flex Clause Contractual provision allowing the buyer or seller to vary the volume of a contracted shipment by an agreed percentage (typically plus or minus 20%) tied to a defined trigger such as ONSSA-validated harvest declaration or shipping availability. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_FORECAST_001 Version : 1.1 Status : Active Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Quarterly refresh Next Review Due : 2026-09-13 Annual Review : Yes Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Distribution : Internal, founder and advisory Review Triggers : Mandatory refresh upon (a) Section 122 expiry or replacement, (b) material Mediterranean weather event, (c) Junta de Andalucia AFORO publication for 2026/27, or (d) Moroccan Federation of Olive Production 2026/27 forecast release. COMPLIANCE : The price bands and scenario probabilities cited are forecasts, not guarantees. Procurement decisions made under this forecast must include the volume flex clause and Eurofins-governing quality clause specified in DARX_MI_RISK_001 Section 4. The USD-EUR-MAD foreign exchange assumptions are not modelled in this forecast; FX hedging belongs in the procurement contract, not in the forecast band. Revision History : See Section 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF DOCUMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------