-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (HEADER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_RISK_001 Title : Daralbeida Sourcing Risk Report, Year 1 procurement through Year 2 contracting horizon Version : 1.1 Status : ACTIVE Classification : Internal, founder and advisory Prepared By : PYB / Daralbeida Reviewed By : (pending) Approved By : (pending) Approval Date : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Date Created : 2026-05-10 Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Quarterly, plus event-triggered refresh (see footer) Next Review Due : 2026-09-13 Annual Review : Required Retention : Duration of Year 1 launch program plus seven years Department : MI Style : BPGP Keywords : sourcing risk, MAFTA, Section 122, Section 301, olive oil, procurement, tariff, ONSSA, FBA, Morocco, Tunisia Related Docs : DARX-MI-YEARLY-001, DARX-MI-FORECAST-001, DARX-MI-DASHBOARD-YEARLY-001, DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001 Supersedes : DARX_MI_RISK_20260510.txt Superseded By : (none, current version) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Purpose and Scope 2. Executive Readout 3. Risk Register 3.1 R-01 MAFTA Tariff Advantage Compressed [HIGH] 3.2 R-02 Section 301 Successor Regime Uncertainty [HIGH] 3.3 R-03 Supplier Qualification Dependency [HIGH] 3.4 R-04 Morocco 2026/27 Harvest Weather Uncertainty [HIGH] 3.5 R-05 Tunisia Value-Tier Encroachment [HIGH] 3.6 R-06 US Demand-Side Compression [MED] 3.7 R-07 USD Weakness Against EUR/MAD [MED] 3.8 R-08 ONSSA Shipment-Level Certification Delays [MED] 3.9 R-09 COA and Gate 1 Screening Disputes [LOW-MED] 3.10 R-10 3PL and FBA Inbound Prep Costs Dominating [LOW] 4. Rolled-Up Risk Summary 5. Recommended Actions, Next 30 Days 6. AI Prompts 7. Revision History 8. Acronyms 9. Glossary DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE ================================================================================ This document is the formal sourcing risk register for the Daralbeida Year 1 procurement program (proof-of-concept LCL through approximately 4,000-unit Amazon FBA program) with a forward view to Year 2 contracting. It enumerates the specific risks identified as of May 10, 2026, rates each risk on probability and impact, and prescribes the mitigation required to maintain operational integrity of the launch plan. It is the controlling reference for risk-related decisions in the next six months. It does not replace the procurement contract, the producer qualification SOP (DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001), or the landed cost calculator. It works alongside them. For market context, see DARX-MI-YEARLY-001. For pricing forecast, see DARX-MI-FORECAST-001. For country-by-country competitive view, see DARX-MI-DASHBOARD-YEARLY-001. ================================================================================ 2. EXECUTIVE READOUT ================================================================================ Year 1 sourcing risk is at its most favourable level since the project began. Producer surplus, a doubled Moroccan crop, and a domestic Moroccan retail price that has fallen by half all open the procurement window. The dominant residual risks are not in supply or quality. They are in (a) US trade-policy uncertainty through July 24, 2026, (b) the structural compression of the MAFTA duty advantage that the business plan depends on, and (c) the weather setup for the 2026/27 crop, which determines whether the Year 2 procurement window stays open. Five risks are flagged HIGH. None require pulling back from the launch plan. All require clauses, documentation, or scenario modelling that should be in place before the Q3 2026 shipment. ================================================================================ 3. RISK REGISTER ================================================================================ 3.1 R-01 MAFTA TARIFF ADVANTAGE COMPRESSED [HIGH] Driver: Section 122 imposes a 10% baseline (some sources cite the 15% statutory cap reached) on imports from all origins, including MAFTA partners. CIT struck it down in May 2026. Collection continues pending appeal. Impact: The business plan's "USD 0.30 to 0.50/L MAFTA advantage versus EU producers" claim is currently roughly half that. EU specific duties (5 cents/kg on certain HTS) plus 10% Section 122 still leave Morocco with a tariff edge, but smaller. Probability: REALIZED (effect already in landed cost calculations). Time horizon: Resolves by July 24, 2026 (statutory expiry) unless Congress extends or replaces. Mitigation: 1. Re-run Daralbeida Landed Cost Calculator under three tariff scenarios (10%, 15%, 0%) and price the proof-of-concept under the 10% case as base. 2. Confirm with US trade counsel the BH preference indicator is being filed correctly on the entry summary regardless of Section 122 status (preserves position if Section 122 collapses). 3. Hold founder-facing materials and investor decks neutral on "zero-duty advantage" language until July 24 outcome is known. 3.2 R-02 SECTION 301 SUCCESSOR REGIME UNCERTAINTY [HIGH] Driver: USTR Section 301 investigations into 16 economies opened March 11, 2026; public comment closed April 15, 2026. Findings and recommended tariffs structured to land at Section 122 sunset. Morocco is NOT in the 16-country list. EU and several Asian origins ARE. Impact: Could materially shift the Morocco vs. EU vs. Tunisia cost spread in Daralbeida's favour from August 2026. Conversely, no policy guarantees that Morocco stays at 0% if a new across-the-board surcharge replaces Section 122. Probability: HIGH that something replaces Section 122 by August. Mitigation: 1. Build investor narrative on relative tariff exposure ("Morocco is not in the Section 301 investigation cohort"), not absolute zero-duty claims. 2. Subscribe to Federal Register notices for HTS 1509.10 (chapter 15) and watch for Section 232 or 301 inclusions. 3. Defer any large LC-secured contract above 5,000 litres until post-July 24 clarity if commercially possible. 3.3 R-03 SUPPLIER QUALIFICATION DEPENDENCY [HIGH] Driver: Year 1 model contemplates a small number of qualified producers under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001. Single-supplier or two-supplier reliance creates concentration risk on a market where harvest can swing 60% year-on-year. Impact: A 2026/27 weather event in the supplier's micro-region could halt re-supply ahead of Year 2. Probability: MODERATE-HIGH. Climate volatility is structural. Mitigation: 1. Maintain at least one qualified BACKUP-tier producer in a geographically distinct region under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001. 2. Use the open producer surplus right now to qualify three producers across two regions before the procurement market re-tightens. 3. Reserve the right to source from BACKUP under existing PO with PRIMARY without renegotiation. 3.4 R-04 MOROCCO 2026/27 HARVEST WEATHER UNCERTAINTY [HIGH] Driver: Spring 2026 rainfall and flowering performance determine the next crop. Morocco's groves are 65% rainfed. Olive Oil Times (February 2026) flagged labour shortages and a delayed start to the 2025/26 harvest, both indicators of system fragility. Impact: A weak 2026/27 crop would re-tighten producer pricing power going into Daralbeida's Year 2 scale-up (target growth from approximately 4,000 to higher unit volumes). Probability: 30 to 40% chance of a meaningfully reduced 2026/27 crop based on alternate-bearing biology and recent climate volatility. Mitigation: 1. Negotiate Year 1 contracts with optional Year 2 forward quantity at indexed price (Pool Red plus agreed differential or fixed FOB). Locks supply without speculating on direction. 2. Build a plus-or-minus 20% volume flex clause into the producer contract explicitly tied to ONSSA-validated harvest declaration. 3. Carry two to three months of Year 1 Amazon-ready inventory at 3PL as weather buffer. 3.5 R-05 TUNISIA VALUE-TIER ENCROACHMENT [HIGH] Driver: Tunisian EVOO export to US +61% by value in 2025. Bulk pricing 25% or more below Spain. Tunisia is positioning to own the "North African olive oil" perception in the US value-to-mid tier. Impact: Risks anchoring US consumer perception of "North African origin" as value-priced rather than premium. Daralbeida's premium positioning at USD 26 per 0.5L is defensible on quality, single-estate, and FFA specification, but the narrative work is heavier if Tunisia gets there first with high-volume listings. Probability: ALREADY HAPPENING. Mitigation: 1. Daralbeida brand voice must explicitly distinguish Morocco-origin from "North African" generic positioning. Brand materials reference Morocco specifically, not "North African." 2. PDO-equivalent narrative around Atlas terroir (only after a specific estate is contracted and verified, not before). 3. Lead with FFA 0.5% maximum specification, polyphenol level, and harvest year as objective premium markers. 3.6 R-06 US DEMAND-SIDE COMPRESSION [MED] Driver: US imports -22% YoY 2025. Demand-destruction signal from the 2023/24 price spike has lingered. Premium tier more resilient than mass-market, but consumer purchasing power under pressure. Impact: Slower Amazon velocity at USD 26 launch tier than the model assumed when it was built. Probability: MODERATE. Mitigation: 1. The three-tier listing-maturity pricing architecture (Launch USD 26 / Demand-Signal USD 28-29 / Brand-Equity USD 32) was designed for exactly this. Retain the Launch Tier at USD 26 even if cost-side relief permits higher; velocity is the Year 1 KPI, not unit margin. 2. Monitor Amazon ACoS weekly; if launch tier ACoS exceeds 50% sustained, reconsider price/promo mix before quantity. 3.7 R-07 USD WEAKNESS AGAINST EUR/MAD [MED] Driver: Reports through 2025/26 cite a weakening dollar adding cost uncertainty to importers sourcing in EUR or MAD. Impact: Erodes margin between FOB Casablanca cost and US retail price; cumulatively material at scale. Probability: ONGOING CONDITION. Mitigation: 1. For first PO, lock FX at PO issuance with 30/70 payment terms (30% deposit on PO at locked FX; 70% on B/L). 2. For repeat orders, consider USD-denominated contracts where the producer agrees (rare with Moroccan producers, but possible with larger exporters). 3. Build 2 to 3% FX volatility cushion into the Daralbeida Landed Cost Calculator default scenario. 3.8 R-08 ONSSA SHIPMENT-LEVEL CERTIFICATION DELAYS [MED] Driver: Each export shipment requires an ONSSA health certificate with 5 to 10 business day lead time. With Morocco running record export-eligible volume, throughput at ONSSA may slow. Impact: Schedule slippage on the Q3 2026 proof-of-concept shipment; knock-on to FBA inbound timing. Probability: MODERATE. Mitigation: 1. Confirm with the shortlisted producer their ONSSA process familiarity before issuing the PO. 2. Build a 14-day buffer between expected ONSSA issuance and vessel cut-off in the shipment plan. 3. Cross-reference supplier agrement against the official ONSSA list at PO time per existing SOP. 3.9 R-09 COA AND GATE 1 SCREENING DISPUTES [LOW-MED] Driver: Two-gate QC system (CDR OxiTester Junior in Morocco; Eurofins CAL in US) can produce divergent readings, especially on polyphenol counts close to the 250 mg/kg minimum Daralbeida specification. Impact: Disputes over rejected lots or price adjustments. Probability: LOW for first shipment with careful supplier selection; MODERATE thereafter as volume grows. Mitigation: 1. Contract clause specifying that Gate 2 (Eurofins) result is governing; Gate 1 is screening and advisory. 2. Define non-conformity threshold (FFA above 0.5% triggers price renegotiation; FFA above 0.8% triggers right of refusal). 3. Specify SGS or Bureau Veritas as arbitration laboratory in dispute, with cost shared. 3.10 R-10 3PL AND FBA INBOUND PREP COSTS DOMINATING [LOW] Driver: Project chat summary already noted 3PL FBA prep costs dominate logistics, not ocean freight. Landed cost calculator should reflect this. Impact: Surprise margin compression if 3PL costs creep above model. Probability: LOW with prepared FNSKU labelling at source. Mitigation: 1. Confirm FNSKU labelling completed at source for approximately USD 0.02 to 0.05/unit versus Amazon's USD 0.20 to 0.55/unit. 2. Lock 3PL fee schedule before first shipment, not after. ================================================================================ 4. ROLLED-UP RISK SUMMARY ================================================================================ Category Rating ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Supply availability LOW Quality fitness LOW Trade policy / tariffs HIGH Currency / FX MED Producer concentration HIGH Weather / 2026/27 outlook HIGH (Year 2) Demand-side / consumer MED Brand-narrative pressure HIGH (Tunisia) Operational compliance LOW-MED The strategically interesting concentration: every HIGH-rated risk except R-03 (concentration) is exogenous. Daralbeida's Year 1 controllables are well-positioned. The risk profile is about timing, narrative, and contract structure, not about ability to source quality product. ================================================================================ 5. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS, NEXT 30 DAYS ================================================================================ 1. Confirm Section 122 entry-summary protocol with US trade counsel. The BH preference indicator must be filed regardless of Section 122 status. Document the procedure for the customs broker. 2. Re-run the Daralbeida Landed Cost Calculator under three scenarios: 10% Section 122, 15% Section 122, MAFTA reverts to 0%. Use the 10% case as base. 3. Move at least three producers through DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001 to PRIMARY or BACKUP tier in two distinct regions while the producer surplus persists. 4. Insert into the producer contract template: plus-or-minus 20% volume flex tied to ONSSA harvest declaration; Year 2 forward quantity option at indexed price; Eurofins-governing quality clause; SGS / Bureau Veritas arbitration laboratory specification. 5. Brand-voice review: ensure all consumer-facing materials reference Morocco specifically, not "North African" generic. 6. Track three indicators weekly: Pool Red EVOO origin price; Morocco rainfall and flowering reports; USTR Section 301 announcements. ================================================================================ 6. AI PROMPTS ================================================================================ The following copy-paste prompt regenerates or refreshes this sourcing risk register from updated source inputs. Replace the editable tokens in [SQUARE_BRACKETS] with current values before running. ================================================================================ START OF PROMPT ================================================================================ You are a market-intelligence analyst for Daralbeida, a premium Moroccan extra virgin olive oil brand launching on Amazon FBA in the US. Produce an updated sourcing risk register as of [REVIEW_DATE] covering the Year 1 procurement program (proof-of-concept LCL through approximately [YEAR_1_UNIT_VOLUME]-unit Amazon FBA program) with a forward view to Year 2 contracting. For each risk, provide: a short title, a Driver paragraph, an Impact paragraph, a Probability rating, and a numbered Mitigation list. Rate each risk HIGH, MED, LOW-MED, or LOW. Cover at minimum these themes: MAFTA tariff advantage and Section 122 status as of [SECTION_122_STATUS]; USTR Section 301 successor regime; supplier qualification concentration under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001; Morocco [CROP_YEAR] harvest weather; Tunisia value-tier encroachment; US demand-side compression; USD vs EUR/MAD FX; ONSSA certification lead time; COA and two-gate QC disputes; and 3PL/FBA inbound prep costs. Close with a rolled-up risk summary table by category and a numbered list of recommended actions for the next 30 days. Preserve every figure, price, percentage, date, company name, and source citation exactly. Output in BPGP v3.1 plain-text format. ================================================================================ END OF PROMPT ================================================================================ ================================================================================ 7. REVISION HISTORY ================================================================================ Ver Date Author Summary of Changes ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1.0 2026-05-10 PYB / Daralbeida Initial issue (BPGP reformat of DARX-RISK-SOURCING-001 dated 2026-05-10). 1.1 2026-06-13 PYB / Daralbeida Reformatted to BPGP v3.1: added AI Prompts, Revision History as a numbered section, full control header and footer; content unchanged. ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ================================================================================ 8. ACRONYMS ================================================================================ ACoS Advertising Cost of Sale (Amazon PPC metric) B/L Bill of Lading BH Special Program Indicator for the US-Morocco FTA preference CAL (Eurofins) Contaminant Analysis Laboratory designation CBP US Customs and Border Protection CDR CDR (manufacturer of the OxiTester Junior screening device) CIT Court of International Trade (US) COA Certificate of Analysis DAB Daralbeida (operational document prefix) EU European Union EUR Euro (currency) EVOO Extra Virgin Olive Oil FBA Fulfilled by Amazon FFA Free Fatty Acid FNSKU Fulfillment Network Stock Keeping Unit (Amazon FBA label) FOB Free On Board (Incoterm) FTA Free Trade Agreement FX Foreign Exchange HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule (United States) KPI Key Performance Indicator L Litre LC Letter of Credit LCL Less than Container Load MAD Moroccan Dirham (currency) MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement MI Market Intelligence ONSSA National Office of Food Safety (Morocco) PDO Protected Designation of Origin PO Purchase Order PPC Pay Per Click Q3 Third quarter of calendar year QC Quality Control SGS Societe Generale de Surveillance (independent inspection lab) SKU Stock Keeping Unit SOP Standard Operating Procedure USD US Dollar (currency) USTR Office of the United States Trade Representative Y1 Year 1 of Daralbeida launch Y2 Year 2 of Daralbeida launch YoY Year-on-year 3PL Third-Party Logistics (provider) ================================================================================ 9. GLOSSARY ================================================================================ Atlas Terroir A geographic provenance descriptor used in some Moroccan olive oil branding referring to the Atlas Mountains region. Within the Daralbeida brand, this descriptor is reserved for use AFTER a specific estate has been contracted and verified, never as generic positioning. The current brand positioning statement uses "the western edge of the Mediterranean world" pending estate contracting. Backup Tier Producer qualification tier under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001 reserved for qualified producers held in reserve as alternative supply sources to PRIMARY-tier producers. May be activated under PO with PRIMARY without renegotiation per the contract template. Brand-Equity Tier Third tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 32 per 0.5L bottle. Demand-Signal Tier Second tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 28 to 29 per 0.5L bottle. Eurofins-Governing Quality Clause Contract clause specifying that in the case of divergent readings between Gate 1 (CDR OxiTester Junior in Morocco) and Gate 2 (Eurofins CAL in US), the Gate 2 result is governing for acceptance, rejection, or price adjustment decisions. Founder The principal of Daralbeida. In all Daralbeida documents referenced by function only, never by personal name. Indexed Pricing Contractual pricing mechanism where the unit price paid is calculated by reference to a published benchmark plus an agreed differential. Launch Tier First tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 26 per 0.5L bottle. Primary Tier Producer qualification tier under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001 reserved for the highest-confidence producers from which Daralbeida contracts main supply volume. Volume Flex Clause Contractual provision allowing the buyer to vary the volume of a contracted shipment by an agreed percentage (typically plus-or-minus 20%) tied to a defined trigger such as ONSSA-validated harvest declaration. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_RISK_001 Version : 1.1 Status : ACTIVE Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Quarterly, plus event-triggered refresh Next Review Due : 2026-09-13 Annual Review : Required Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Distribution : Internal, founder and advisory; sharable with US trade counsel for risk R-01 and R-02 mitigation review Review Triggers : Mandatory refresh upon (a) Section 122 status change, (b) producer qualification status change in DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001, (c) USTR Section 301 announcement, or (d) Moroccan 2026/27 harvest forecast publication COMPLIANCE : Risk ratings reflect conditions as of May 10, 2026. The HIGH-rated risks (R-01, R-02, R-03, R-04, R-05) must be re-rated within 30 days of any material change to Section 122 status, Moroccan harvest forecast, or producer qualification tier counts. The mitigations listed are not optional checklists; each mitigation is a contractual or procedural requirement that must be in place before the proof-of-concept shipment leaves Casablanca. Revision History : See Section 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF DOCUMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------