-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (HEADER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_YEARLY_001 Title : Annual Olive Oil Intelligence Brief Version : 1.1 Status : ACTIVE Classification : Internal, founder and advisory Prepared By : PYB / Daralbeida Reviewed By : (pending) Approved By : (pending) Approval Date : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Date Created : 2026-05-10 Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Annual Next Review Due : 2027-05-10 Annual Review : Mandatory refresh upon (a) Section 122 resolution by July 24, 2026, (b) Mediterranean flowering window outcome by late June 2026, or (c) any material change in the trade-policy regime affecting Morocco-origin olive oil Retention : Permanent reference for Daralbeida operations; superseded by next annual edition (DARX_MI_YEARLY_002) Department : MI Style : BPGP Keywords : olive oil, market intelligence, MAFTA, Section 122, Morocco, Daralbeida, EVOO, tariff, crop year, premium tier Related Docs : DARX_MI_WEEKLY_001, DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001, DARX_MI_RISK_001, DARX_MI_FORECAST_001, DAB_SOP_SOURCING_001 Supersedes : DARX_MI_YEARLY_20260510.txt Superseded By : (none, current version) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Purpose and Scope 2. Executive Summary 3. The Four-Year Story (2022 to 2026) 3.1 Phase I, The Drought (Winter 2022/23 Through Spring 2024) 3.2 Phase II, The Rebound (Autumn 2024 Through Spring 2025) 3.3 Phase III, The Stabilization (Autumn 2025 Through Spring 2026) 4. Where We Stand, May 2026 4.1 Anchor 1, Production 4.2 Anchor 2, Stocks 4.3 Anchor 3, Prices 4.4 Anchor 4, US Tariff Status 4.5 Anchor 5, Demand 4.6 Anchor 6, Industry Activity 5. Structural Drivers 5.1 Climate Compression 5.2 Demand Expansion in Non-Traditional Markets 5.3 Cost Inflation Locked In 5.4 Modernization and Irrigation Expansion 5.5 Phytosanitary Pressure 6. Demand-Side Picture 6.1 US Retail, Import-Dependent, Growing 6.2 EU Retail, Recovering, Price-Sensitive 6.3 Emerging Markets, Scaling From Small Base 7. Trade Policy and Regulatory Landscape 7.1 US, The Section 122 Transition 7.2 EU, Mercosur, India, Standards 7.3 US, The Olive Oil Standards Act (HR 6747) 7.4 Antidumping, Spain Ripe Olives 8. Industry Dynamics 8.1 Consolidation 8.2 Fraud and Adulteration 8.3 Quality Competitions and Signaling 8.4 Health Research Expansion 9. Cyclical Drivers, Twelve-Month Horizon 9.1 Input 1, Mediterranean Spring Rainfall (April-June 2026) 9.2 Input 2, Flowering Window Outcome (May-June 2026) 9.3 Input 3, Alternate-Bearing Biology 9.4 Input 4, Summer Temperature Events (July-September 2026) 9.5 Input 5, Stock Carryover Into October 2026 9.6 Input 6, Foreign Exchange Rates 10. Forward Calendar, Twelve Months 10.1 May 2026 (Current) 10.2 June 2026 10.3 July 2026, The Binary Month 10.4 August 2026 10.5 September 2026 10.6 October 2026 10.7 November 2026 10.8 December 2026 10.9 January 2027 10.10 February 2027 10.11 March 2027 10.12 April 2027 10.13 May 2027 11. Climate and Long-Term Outlook (2027 to 2035) 11.1 Mediterranean Volatility Is Structurally Rising 11.2 Northward Migration Is Real But Slow 11.3 North Africa's Competitive Position Is Bifurcated 12. Strategic Implications for Daralbeida 12.1 Implication 1, Supply Window Is Open; Act 12.2 Implication 2, Tariff Scenario Planning Is Pre-Work for July 24 12.3 Implication 3, Tunisia Counter-Narrative Is Brand Work 12.4 Implication 4, Italian Premium Compression Is Pricing Room 12.5 Implication 5, Standards Movement Is Tailwind 12.6 Implication 6, Demand Destruction Is Not the Forecast 13. Key Risks Ranked 14. Sources 15. AI Prompts 16. Revision History 17. Acronyms 18. Glossary DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE ================================================================================ This document is the Daralbeida annual intelligence brief covering the global olive oil market for the twelve months ending May 10, 2026, with a structured twelve-month forward view to May 10, 2027. It is intended to be the controlling reference for strategic decisions spanning multiple crop years, including supplier qualification staging, pricing-tier architecture validation, investor communications, and risk-register baseline. It does not replace tactical documents. For weekly tactical intelligence, see DARX_MI_WEEKLY_001 series. For country-by-country detail with past events and forward calendar, see DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001. For sourcing risk register, see DARX_MI_RISK_001. For pricing forecast, see DARX_MI_FORECAST_001. The brief is built on primary research drawn from the International Olive Council, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Spanish AICA, Tunisian ONAGRI, IMF/FRED Global Olive Oil Price benchmark, Olive Oil Times, Certified Origins monthly market reports, Federal Register notices, Congress.gov, PitchBook merger and acquisition records, and peer-reviewed climate research. ================================================================================ 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ================================================================================ The global olive oil market exits the 2025/26 crop year having completed the second leg of one of the most violent supply-driven cycles in the commodity's modern history. Between the 2022/23 drought trough and the 2024/25 production peak, world output swung from approximately 2.59 million tonnes to approximately 3.57 million tonnes, a 38% rebound in a single year. Benchmark Spanish origin prices traveled from approximately EUR 10/kg at peak (early 2024) down to a floor near EUR 4.30/kg in mid-2025 before stabilizing in the EUR 4.30 to 5.00/kg range through May 2026. The 2025/26 campaign, a moderate retreat to approximately 3.44 million tonnes, has so far delivered prices that are sticky on the way down: producers are defending a floor, carryover stocks are 24% below year-ago, and Spanish operators have absorbed a price tick upward in mid-February rather than a feared collapse below EUR 4. Five themes define the year ahead. First, the 2026/27 crop is the dominant variable. The Mediterranean flowering window in May-June 2026 will resolve roughly 40% of the total uncertainty in the next twelve months of price action. Alternate-bearing biology, most major growing regions are coming off "on" years and are statistically due for moderation, argues against a third consecutive bumper crop. Second, US trade policy has entered a 90-day window of binary resolution. The Section 122 baseline tariff (10% on all origins, imposed February 24, 2026 after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA) was itself struck down by the Court of International Trade in early May. It remains in effect pending appeal, expires statutorily on July 24, 2026, and is being deliberately bridged toward a Section 301 successor regime targeting 16 specifically named economies. Morocco is not among them. Third, demand has bent but not broken. US olive oil consumption is forecast to reach a record 478,000 metric tons in 2025/26 even as import volumes contracted 22% across the year. The contraction is arithmetic, not behavioural, consumers ate stocks already in the country at the 2024 price peak. Premium tier purchasing has outperformed mass-market in every importing market that publishes data. Fourth, the structural story is consolidation and codification. Cobram Estate's USD 173.5M acquisition of California Olive Ranch in December 2025 is the largest US-side consolidation in a decade. Spain's National Official Control Plan 2026-2030 adds digital traceability and 20% annual operator coverage at the EU level. The bipartisan Olive Oil Standards Act (HR 6747) introduced in January 2026 would direct the FDA to establish the first US federal standard of identity for olive oil grades. Each of these shifts the operating environment in directions that favour quality-positioned brands and disadvantage the value-tier blenders that dominated the previous era. Fifth, the climate horizon continues to compress. Modeled outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show average olive oil yield reductions of up to 30% in the southern Iberian Peninsula by 2040-2069. The Mediterranean basin is named an IPCC climate hotspot. The northward shift of olive cultivation into Piedmont, Trentino, and northern Italy has begun. None of this changes the May 2026 procurement decision, but all of it shifts the strategic logic of locking long-term Moroccan supply relationships now rather than later. For Daralbeida, the year ending May 2026 was the project's preparation phase: brand, legal structure, sourcing SOP, FDA agent, MAFTA mechanics, FOB Casablanca pricing logic. The year beginning May 2026 is the execution phase. The supply window is favourable. The trade policy window is binary. The competitive field is reshaping in the brand's favour. The single most important thing to get right between now and May 2027 is producer qualification under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001, locking in two to three primary-tier suppliers in geographically distinct regions while Moroccan producers have surplus volume and motivated pricing. ================================================================================ 3. THE FOUR-YEAR STORY (2022 TO 2026) ================================================================================ To understand where we are, the relevant frame is not the last twelve months but the last forty-eight. The current market is shaped by a sequence of events that began in late 2022 and is still working through the system. 3.1 PHASE I, THE DROUGHT (WINTER 2022/23 THROUGH SPRING 2024) The 2022/23 Spanish crop fell to approximately 660,000 tonnes, more than 50% below the prior five-year average. Mediterranean drought conditions that the European Commission's Joint Research Centre flagged in spring 2023 persisted with little respite through the year. Global production for 2022/23 came in at 2.76 million tonnes, the lowest in nearly a decade. Prices moved through three distinct stages: 1. June 2022: approximately USD 4,030 per tonne IMF benchmark. 2. December 2023: USD 9,463 per tonne. 3. January 2024: peak at USD 10,281 per tonne (the all-time historic high in nominal terms); Pool Red Spanish EVOO peaked above EUR 9 per kilogram origin. The shock cascaded into demand destruction in price-sensitive markets. Brazilian olive oil imports fell 11% in 2023/24. Italian olive fruit fly pressure compounded yield losses. Andalusian groves saw extreme heat events through summer 2023, and the Chergui wind caused additional damage in the Marrakech-Safi region of Morocco. By spring 2024, olive oil had become the most-stolen product in Spanish supermarkets, with retailers padlocking bottles. EU and Italian/Spanish authorities ran Operation OPSON XIII, seizing 22,000 tonnes of counterfeit food worth EUR 91 million, of which a significant share was olive oil. Morocco banned olive oil exports in October 2023 to control domestic prices. That single regulatory decision was a structural reminder that supply security in North Africa is conditional on government discretion in years of stress. 3.2 PHASE II, THE REBOUND (AUTUMN 2024 THROUGH SPRING 2025) The 2024/25 crop year delivered a 38% production rebound to approximately 3.57 million tonnes, driven primarily by Spain's recovery to 1.42 million tonnes (+66% YoY), Tunisia's surge to approximately 340,000 tonnes (+55%), and Turkey's record 505,000 tonnes (+135%). Italy bucked the trend with a sharp drop to approximately 248,000 tonnes (-25%) due to drought and Xylella fastidiosa pressure in the south. Prices retraced violently: 1. Pool Red Jaen: from above EUR 9/kg to EUR 4.30/kg by mid-2025. 2. Italy Bari: from above EUR 9/kg to approximately EUR 7/kg. 3. Greece Chania: from above EUR 8/kg to approximately EUR 4.65/kg. 4. EU export unit value to US: from EUR 987.8 per 100 kg peak (July 2024) to EUR 667.8 per 100 kg (February 2025), a 32% drop in seven months. The EU's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for olive oil began its sustained downward trend in April 2024 and ran negative through all of 2025. Spanish consumer olive oil prices fell 38.9% in 2025; Greek 29.2%; Portuguese 24%. EU-wide, 2025 was the first decline after four consecutive years of double-digit increases. Morocco's 2024/25 crop, however, stayed depressed, only approximately 95,000 tonnes after two consecutive drought years. Domestic retail prices held above 100 MAD per litre. The country was an outlier in the regional recovery. 3.3 PHASE III, THE STABILIZATION (AUTUMN 2025 THROUGH SPRING 2026) The 2025/26 crop has come in at approximately 3.44 million tonnes, a 4% moderation from the bumper 2024/25 year, broadly in line with biological expectations for the alternate-bearing cycle. By country, 2025/26 trajectory (production in thousand tonnes): Country Production and Notes ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Spain 1,270 to 1,370. Revised down from 1,440 kt; AEMO trimmed to ~1,200 kt after Storm Claudia and November-December rains Italy ~300. +30% YoY rebound Greece ~210. -15% YoY; Crete drought Portugal ~150. Steady; modern irrigated estates resilient Tunisia 450 to 500. Record harvest; price collapse, fraud scandal Turkey 150 to 200. Sharp drop after record 2024/25 MOROCCO ~200. DOUBLED from ~95 kt USA (CA) ~10. Steady; less than 2% of US consumption Pricing as of May 2026: Origin Price and Notes ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Pool Red Jaen EVOO EUR 4.50 to 5.00/kg. Sticky, defended by producers Italy Bari EVOO EUR 6.50 to 7.00/kg. Consolidation phase Greece Chania EVOO EUR 4.70 to 5.10/kg. Edged up slightly Tunisia conventional EUR 3.40 to 4.00/kg. Undercutting Morocco retail 50 to 60 MAD/L. ~EUR 4.50 to 5.50/L IMF benchmark USD 6,068/MT. March 2026, FRED The defining feature of Phase III is that prices have NOT collapsed to pre-2022 levels despite ample supply. The EUR 5/kg "soft floor" on Spanish origin reflects: (a) carryover stocks still 24% below year-ago, (b) producer cost inflation locked in, (c) cooperative discipline on release timing, and (d) Italian and Greek price benchmarks holding their differentials. Filippo Berio's UK Managing Director characterized the market in March 2025 as "back into equilibrium", equilibrium at a permanently higher price level than pre-2022. ================================================================================ 4. WHERE WE STAND, MAY 2026 ================================================================================ Six anchor data points define the May 2026 baseline. 4.1 ANCHOR 1, PRODUCTION 2025/26 finishing at approximately 3.44 million tonnes globally; -4% YoY but well above the five-year average and 33% above the 2.59 Mt drought trough. 4.2 ANCHOR 2, STOCKS Spanish end-of-December 2025 stocks: approximately 716 thousand tonnes total (mills approximately 551 kt, bottlers approximately 161 kt, public storage approximately 4 kt). 24% below December 2024 levels. Approximately 60% of the 2025/26 season's stock had been dispatched by April 2026 per AICA and IOC data, fast enough to leave summer stocks tight. 4.3 ANCHOR 3, PRICES Pool Red holding EUR 4.50 to 5.00/kg. Mid-February 2026 saw a +EUR 0.30/kg move in 15 days, demonstrating the market's residual volatility. IMF/FRED global benchmark: USD 6,068/MT (March 2026). 4.4 ANCHOR 4, US TARIFF STATUS Section 122 at 10% (some sources cite 15% statutory cap reached in late February 2026) on all origins. Court of International Trade struck it down in early May 2026; SCOTUS appeal expected. Statutory expiry July 24, 2026. USTR Section 301 investigations into 16 economies (Morocco NOT listed) opened March 11; public comment closed April 15; recommendations due near Section 122 sunset. USMCA goods carry full exemption. MAFTA still confers 0% MFN under preference indicator BH but does not exempt Section 122. 4.5 ANCHOR 5, DEMAND USDA forecasting record 478,000 MT US consumption in 2025/26, third consecutive marketing-year increase. EU consumption recovering at +7% on the back of price relief. India FTA with EU concluded January 2026, phased zero tariff over five years on EU olive oil (was up to 45%), pending ratification. Mercosur Partnership Agreement signed January 17, 2026, ratification pending. Both potential growth channels for non-US export flows. 4.6 ANCHOR 6, INDUSTRY ACTIVITY Cobram Estate / California Olive Ranch close: USD 173.5 million, December 23, 2025. Deoleo distribution expansion in India: 250,000 to 450,000 outlets, January 2026. HR 6747 (Olive Oil Standards Act) introduced January 2026. EU Court of Auditors finds gaps in olive oil control enforcement, January 20, 2026. Belgium regulators investigating after newspaper found 20 of 32 brands failing quality standards (October 2025). ================================================================================ 5. STRUCTURAL DRIVERS ================================================================================ Distinguish structural from cyclical. The cyclical drivers (harvest, weather, alternate-bearing) reset every year. The structural drivers do not. 5.1 CLIMATE COMPRESSION The Mediterranean is named an IPCC climate change hotspot. Recent peer-reviewed work consolidates the trajectory: 1. CMIP6 models project olive oil yield reductions in the southern Iberian Peninsula of up to 30% in the near future window (2040-2069), with Maximum Oil Content falling by up to 17.5 percentage points. 2. 5,400-year palaeoclimate reconstruction from Tyre, Lebanon identifies an optimal annual average temperature of 16.9 plus or minus 0.3 degrees C for olive flowering. Temperatures above this band, increasingly common, push optimal cultivation northward. 3. Probability of multi-year drought in southern Spain has risen from approximately 20% (1971-2000 baseline) to over 40% currently, and to above 50% by the 2040s. 4. A study published in Communications Earth & Environment (April 2025) using 8,000 years of pollen data identifies photosynthetic activity, not solar variability, as the primary determinant of olive yield, and finds it threatened by water stress and declining solar radiation in the eastern Mediterranean. The strategic implication is that the Mediterranean producer base is on a long-term contraction trajectory in its traditional core zones, with partial offset from northward expansion (already underway in Piedmont +40% and Friuli-Venezia Giulia +16% acreage 2020-2023, and Trentino-Alto Adige now over 400 hectares around Lake Garda's microclimate). Morocco, with 1.2 million hectares of olive groves and government-backed irrigation expansion, is on the opposite side of this trajectory, a long climate compatibility window with significant headroom for productivity gains. 5.2 DEMAND EXPANSION IN NON-TRADITIONAL MARKETS US per-capita consumption is 1.1 kg per year against Italian and Spanish 7.5 kg. The structural ceiling on US growth is enormous. Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing regional market, off a small base. Brazil and China are scaling. India, with the EU FTA phasing in, is poised to become a meaningful destination. The IOC notes that high prices during 2023/24 may have triggered permanent switching to alternative oils in some markets, an adverse demand event whose effects will only be fully measurable by 2027/28. Premium-tier demand has been more resilient than mass-market in every dataset tracked. 5.3 COST INFLATION LOCKED IN Producer costs have stepped up structurally. Labour, energy, fertilizer, water, transport, none have reverted to pre-2022 levels. Italian Assitol president Anna Cane characterised 2026 as a year of "structurally reduced margins" for Italian growers, even as origin prices come off peak. Spain's mills face the same pressure with weaker pricing power. Implication: the market floor is permanently higher than pre-2022. Industry consensus is that bulk EVOO at EUR 3.00/kg or below, common through 2018-2021, is unlikely to return. The new structural floor appears to be in the EUR 4.00 to 4.50/kg range for Spain conventional. 5.4 MODERNIZATION AND IRRIGATION EXPANSION The 2022-24 drought accelerated capital deployment into: 1. Super-intensive plantings (Spain +1.2%, Portugal +1% acreage expansion projected over the decade per EU Agricultural Outlook). 2. Irrigation infrastructure (Morocco specifically, the doubled 2025/26 crop reflects irrigation investment paying off in combination with favourable weather). 3. Mechanical harvesting (offsetting labour shortages, though with quality trade-offs that some premium producers reject). 4. State-of-the-art milling (ENEA-Italy, Moroccan Federation members, multiple cooperative-level upgrades). Implication: production capacity is being de-bottlenecked, but the underlying weather risk is rising. Output volatility year-to-year is structurally higher than it was a decade ago, even as the trend volume drifts upward. 5.5 PHYTOSANITARY PRESSURE Xylella fastidiosa remains uncontained in Italy after the 2013 arrival in Apulia. EFSA in March 2026 concluded there is no field-ready cure. Olive fruit fly pressure migrating northward. Greece's 2025/26 was hit by both. The biosecurity threat to North Africa, Tunisia in particular, is real but not yet materialised, a watch item, not a 12-month price driver. ================================================================================ 6. DEMAND-SIDE PICTURE ================================================================================ Three segments to track separately. 6.1 US RETAIL, IMPORT-DEPENDENT, GROWING Approximately 95 to 97% imported. Approximately 40% household penetration. USDA forecast: 478,000 MT in 2025/26, third consecutive record. Compound annual growth rate of 7 to 8% through 2030 across multiple market research sources. Premium tier outperforming mass-market. Bono USA's COO captured the pattern: consumers are not willing to trade down once they have moved up to premium products. The US market shrunk in 2025 import volume terms (-22%) but the contraction was inventory drawdown and tariff-induced front-loading reversal, not behavioural demand destruction. Italian import value held USD 1.06 billion in 2024 (Italy 36.2% market share by value, Spain 32.5%). Italian organic EVOO into US was hit hardest, -38% by value, -22% by volume in 2025, a warning signal for the organic sub-segment specifically. 6.2 EU RETAIL, RECOVERING, PRICE-SENSITIVE Eurostat HICP for olive oil: 2025 first annual decline (-23%) after 4 consecutive years of double-digit gains. Spain -38.9%, Greece -29.2%, Portugal -24%. Recovery from 2023/24 peak still incomplete; consumers had shifted partially to seed oils. EU internal consumption forecast at 1.425 Mt in 2025/26. 6.3 EMERGING MARKETS, SCALING FROM SMALL BASE Market Profile ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Brazil 9% of global imports, 0.4 kg per capita Japan 0.4 kg per capita, premium-skewed China 0.3 to 0.4 kg per capita, growing India Was protected by 45% tariff; EU FTA phases that down over 5 years Australia Domestic plus import market, recovering Mexico Stable importer Canada Stable importer For the US specifically, the consumer attitudes survey from University of Michigan in January 2026 showed weakening confidence about the economy. The implication for premium olive oil at USD 26 per 0.5L (Daralbeida launch tier) is that velocity matters more than unit margin in 2026, the launch-tier pricing architecture in the business plan was designed exactly for this dynamic. ================================================================================ 7. TRADE POLICY AND REGULATORY LANDSCAPE ================================================================================ 7.1 US, THE SECTION 122 TRANSITION Timeline of the past 14 months: Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── April 2025 20% IEEPA reciprocal tariff on EU; 10% on Morocco/Turkey; 28% Tunisia (later raised to 25% effective July 2025) April 2025 +90 d Tariffs paused for 90 days August 2025 US-EU framework deal, EU at ~15% Section 232 February 20, 2026 SCOTUS strikes IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional (V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States, 6-3) February 24, 2026 Section 122 invoked at 10% all origins February 22, 2026 Trump announces increase to 15% statutory cap March 11, 2026 USTR opens Section 301 investigations into 16 economies (Morocco NOT included) April 20, 2026 CBP opens CAPE refund portal (~USD 166B collected, ~USD 127B refund-eligible Phase 1) Early May 2026 CIT strikes down Section 122 (collection continues pending appeal) July 24, 2026 Section 122 statutory expiry (150 days) For Daralbeida specifically: 1. HTS 1509.10.4000: 0% MFN under MAFTA (preference indicator BH). 2. Section 122: 10 to 15% baseline currently applies. 3. USMCA exemption does NOT cover MAFTA, Morocco pays Section 122. 4. Section 232 exemption: only for steel, aluminum, copper, auto, lumber, semiconductor, does NOT apply to olive oil. 5. Section 301 forward risk: Morocco not in 16-country investigation cohort, but not categorically immune to future inclusion. If Section 122 expires July 24 without replacement, Moroccan olive oil reverts to 0% effective duty under MAFTA. EU olive oil reverts to MFN (USD 0.034/kg) plus any specific duty (5 cents per kg on certain HTS subheadings). The MAFTA structural advantage that anchors the business plan would be fully restored. If Section 122 is extended or replaced by Section 301 country-specific tariffs, Morocco's relative position likely improves because the most-affected origins (China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and similar) are not olive oil exporters and the EU is a direct olive oil competitor that may face higher Section 301 rates. 7.2 EU, MERCOSUR, INDIA, STANDARDS Mercosur Partnership Agreement (signed January 17, 2026): Phased duty reduction on goods including olive oil between EU and Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay. Ratification pending European Parliament and ECJ review. Italy and France initially withheld support (January 2026) but EU Commission approved updated terms September 2025. Adds growth runway for EU olive oil into South America and shifts EU export focus away from US. EU-India FTA (concluded January 27, 2026): India's tariff on EU olive oil, up to 45%, to be phased to 0% over five years, pending signature and legal ratification. India is currently a small olive oil market but with significant potential due to Mediterranean diet adoption among the growing middle class. Spain National Official Control Plan 2026-2030: Tighter operator controls (at least 20% annual coverage), digital traceability tools (SIMO and REMOA, modeled on Italy's SIAN), border and supply chain checks. Aimed at olive oil and pomace oil specifically. EU Court of Auditors (January 20, 2026): Audit found gaps in EU olive oil controls despite robust regulatory framework. Implications: enforcement tightening coming. Tunisia EU duty-free quota: 60,000 tonnes per year, with Tunisian push for 100,000 t. Italy's discussion of expanding access has resurfaced in 2025/26 amid Tunisia's strong crop. 7.3 US, THE OLIVE OIL STANDARDS ACT (HR 6747) Introduced January 2026 by Representatives Harder (D-CA) and Valadao (R-CA), referred to the Energy and Commerce Committee. Would direct the FDA to establish: 1. A standard of identity for olive oil grades. 2. A grade standard for individual olive oil and olive-pomace oil. 3. Mandatory labelling distinguishing virgin and extra virgin from refined and crude alternatives. 4. Enforcement framework against misleading or fraudulent products. If enacted, this is the first federal standard of identity for olive oil. Currently, US relies on voluntary USDA grade standards (defined 2010), state-level rules (California's COOC and AB 535 are tightest), and private certification schemes (NAOOA seal). The North American Olive Oil Association announced in September 2025 that it would take legal action after a quality testing initiative caught two fraud instances out of 200 or more samples. For Daralbeida: enactment would benefit single-estate, traceable, quality-positioned brands. The launch specification (FFA 0.5% maximum, polyphenol 250 mg/kg minimum) is well above any plausible federal standard of identity threshold. Watching this bill is more useful as an option than as a base case, it has not yet moved to markup. 7.4 ANTIDUMPING, SPAIN RIPE OLIVES The US has had a 30% antidumping duty on Spanish ripe olives (table olives) since 2018, raised to 50% on certain producers in April 2025. This is separate from olive oil. The WTO ruled November 4, 2025 that the US remains noncompliant; the EU is preparing retaliatory measures. This is not a Daralbeida concern directly but is part of the structural trade friction with EU olive products. ================================================================================ 8. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS ================================================================================ 8.1 CONSOLIDATION The defining industry event of 2025/26 is the Cobram Estate Olives acquisition of California Olive Ranch for USD 173.5 million, closing December 23, 2025. Cobram is the dominant Australian premium EVOO producer. The deal creates a stronger premium-positioned US domestic producer with a brand portfolio spanning California Olive Ranch (mass-premium), Lucini Italia, and the Cobram premium line. This consolidates the US-domestic premium tier and signals that the buyer side sees US premium-tier growth as acquisition-justified. Other recent transactions and structural moves: 1. Avril (France) acquired Italy's Costa d'Oro (April 2023), still integrating. 2. Deoleo (Spain): public, market cap USD 137 million as of March 2026, trailing 12-month revenue USD 926 million; expanded India distribution to 450,000 outlets January 2026. 3. Filippo Berio: Salov Group appointed Giacomo Campinoti to lead Filippo Berio USA in June 2025, focused on US growth. 4. Bono USA: leadership transition with Jon Kalina as new CEO, positioning around "affordable premium." 5. Multiple Spanish bottlers establishing US bottling operations to bypass tariffs on packaged goods (importing bulk, bottling domestically). 8.2 FRAUD AND ADULTERATION The 2024 high-price environment generated a record year for fraud incidents. Operation OPSON XIII (Europol/29 countries, December 2023 through March 2024) seized 22,000 tonnes of counterfeit food worth EUR 91 million. Notable seizures: 1. Spain (Guardia Civil): 45,000 L of sunflower oil and pomace falsely labeled as olive oil; 4 arrests. 2. Italy (Carabinieri NAS): 42 tonnes of adulterated oil sold as Italian EVOO, plus 71 tonnes of oily substances and 623 L of chlorophyll used for adulteration. 3. France: significant 2025 fraud uncovered. 4. Belgium (October 2025): newspaper investigation found 20 of 32 brands failing quality standards, one adulterated; regulatory investigation ongoing. Trends: 1. Fraud incidents counted in mainstream media: 15 in 2023, ~30 in 2024, trending back toward 2023 levels in 2025 (7 in first half). 2. Italian authorities reported armed thefts of EVOO shipments in Puglia in late 2025. 3. Tunisia's 2025/26 export situation includes documented fraud allegations: Italian MEP Dario Nardella formally questioned the European Commission on alleged financial fraud by Bioliva Med Company (Tunisian exporter, debts over EUR 170 million, abnormally low export prices); Italian and Spanish triangulation fraud claims unresolved. 4. Detection science advancing: side-front face fluorescence spectroscopy, ultrasound methods, isotopic fingerprinting, DNA cultivar markers, blockchain traceability. For Daralbeida: the fraud environment is tailwind for genuine single-estate brands. The two-gate QC system (CDR OxiTester Junior plus Eurofins CAL) plus producer ID under DAB-PROD-YYYYMMDD format is well-positioned in this regulatory direction. 8.3 QUALITY COMPETITIONS AND SIGNALING The 2026 NYIOOC began awarding earlier than prior years, with first results from January 2026. Italy retained leadership in quality awards for the 11th consecutive year. Spain, Tunisia, Italy, and China origin oils received the IOC Mario Solinas Quality Award in April 2026. Croatia 125 awards, Montenegro debut Silver, Bosnia and Herzegovina monastery 3 Golds, indicating broadening of premium-tier quality across Adriatic origins. For Daralbeida specifically: the NYIOOC competition is a reasonable Year 2 marketing investment (USD 295 per sample submission as of 2024 schedule, plus shipping). Year 1 should focus on launch metrics; Year 2 NYIOOC submission would be a natural fit once a specific estate is contracted and the harvest is in. 8.4 HEALTH RESEARCH EXPANSION Studies published 2025/26 strengthening the EVOO health narrative: 1. Virgin olive oil linked to better gut health and slower cognitive decline (Olive Oil Times coverage February 2026). 2. Yale "One Health" review highlighting olive tree role in human, animal, and environmental health (October 2025). 3. Italian study finding microplastics in EVOO via new imaging (December 2025), supply chain length matters for contamination. Per 100 g of EVOO: monounsaturated fats, antioxidant polyphenols, vitamin E. The Mediterranean diet evidence continues to compound. Health-driven demand is the single most reliable secular tailwind for the category. ================================================================================ 9. CYCLICAL DRIVERS, TWELVE-MONTH HORIZON ================================================================================ The cyclical setup for May 2026 to May 2027 has six measurable inputs. 9.1 INPUT 1, MEDITERRANEAN SPRING RAINFALL (APRIL-JUNE 2026) Status: Heavy and prolonged in Spain (problematic for the tail of the 2025/26 harvest but supportive of soil moisture for 2026/27). Andalusia and Extremadura growing conditions reported as significantly improved by Certified Origins (April 2026 monthly report). Tunisia favourable. Morocco coming off cold and wet harvest period; spring trajectory uncertain. 9.2 INPUT 2, FLOWERING WINDOW OUTCOME (MAY-JUNE 2026) The single most important data point for 2026/27 price trajectory. Strong fruit-set in Spain, Filippo Berio's Walter Zanre projection: prices "weakened considerably." Weak fruit-set, return to "good year, bad year" cycle. Italy tracking carefully given structural production deficit. 9.3 INPUT 3, ALTERNATE-BEARING BIOLOGY Most major producers are coming off "on" years. Statistical prior favours moderation in 2026/27. Turkey already in pronounced "off" year (-50% in 2025/26 from 2024/25 record). 9.4 INPUT 4, SUMMER TEMPERATURE EVENTS (JULY-SEPTEMBER 2026) Andalusia heat dome would be the largest single price-up shock available. Last seen in summer 2024. 9.5 INPUT 5, STOCK CARRYOVER INTO OCTOBER 2026 Currently Spain's stock is 24% below year-ago. Aggressive release through summer (60% of season already moved by April) leaves the June-September window tight. By October 2026 when 2026/27 harvest begins, carryover could be at multi-year low. 9.6 INPUT 6, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES USD weakness reported through 2025/26 adds cost uncertainty to importers. Watch USD/EUR especially; MAD is pegged approximately 60% to EUR and 40% to USD via central bank basket. ================================================================================ 10. FORWARD CALENDAR, TWELVE MONTHS ================================================================================ Key dates to monitor between May 10, 2026 and May 10, 2027. 10.1 MAY 2026 (CURRENT) Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── May 10, 2026 Today Mid-May 2026 Mediterranean flowering window opening May 19-20 PLMA World of Private Label, Amsterdam (Tunisia, Morocco, Italy private-label sourcing) Late May First flowering reports from Andalusia, Apulia, Tunisia May-June Morocco rainfall and flowering critical window, THE single most important data point for 2026/27 10.2 JUNE 2026 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Early June Eurostat HICP for olive oil, May 2026 data Mid-June First serious 2026/27 fruit-set indicators Late June IOC monthly market statistics with provisional 2025/26 final figures Late June EU Council debate on Mercosur ratification path 10.3 JULY 2026, THE BINARY MONTH Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Mid-July Pool Red Jaen weekly producer prices (a thin-trading July is normal; volatility is news) July 24 SECTION 122 STATUTORY EXPIRY. Three plausible outcomes: (a) lapses without replacement, MAFTA reverts to full 0% effective for Morocco; (b) Congress passes extension, 10-15% continues; (c) USTR Section 301 country-specific rates land at sunset (Morocco unlikely included; EU likely) Late July SCOTUS appeal status on Section 122 CIT ruling 10.4 AUGUST 2026 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Andalusia summer temperature watch (heat dome risk for 2026/27) Mid-August First USDA Foreign Ag Service forecast revisions Late August SOHNA, Foodex Morocco, and Interprolive sector briefings on Moroccan 2026/27 outlook 10.5 SEPTEMBER 2026 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Spanish Junta de Andalucia AFORO, first hard 2026/27 forecast for Spain Throughout Mediterranean September rainfall (oil accumulation phase critical) Early Sept Morocco harvest preparation; producer COA confirmations Mid-Sept EU Agricultural Outlook 2026 publication Late Sept IOC October monthly with 2026/27 first provisional estimates Late Sept Daralbeida proof-of-concept LCL departure target window (subject to producer qualification status) 10.6 OCTOBER 2026 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout 2026/27 Northern Hemisphere harvest BEGINS (Italy, Greece typically first) Mid-October First Italian and Greek mill data Late October AICA Spanish stock release end-September (signal of carryover into new crop) Late October Morocco harvest ramping up; producer ONSSA certificates issuing for export 10.7 NOVEMBER 2026 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Morocco main harvest (versus delayed November-start in 2025/26) Mid-November Andalusia harvest peak Late November First Pool Red 2026/27 origin pricing Late November US ITC trade data (October 2026, post-122 first month if 122 lapsed) Late November FDA HR 6747 markup status check 10.8 DECEMBER 2026 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Spain peak harvest Mid-December Italy and Greece harvest concluding Late December IOC December statistics, 2026/27 first authoritative estimates Late December US 2026 calendar-year import data preliminary December Daralbeida Year 2 contracting window OPEN, indexed pricing negotiations 10.9 JANUARY 2027 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Mid-January USDA EU olive oil production forecast Mid-January Spanish AICA stock release end-December Late January First NYIOOC 2027 entries (early-deadline pool) Late January Mercosur and India FTA implementation status checks, these become real if ratified 10.10 FEBRUARY 2027 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Spain harvest concluding Mid-February NYIOOC 2027 deadline approach (typical late-February final cutoff) Late February Annual EU Agricultural Outlook event (Brussels) 10.11 MARCH 2027 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Pricing direction for 2026/27 firms Mid-March IOC March statistics Late March NYIOOC 2027 results begin (followed by Mario Solinas Quality Award in April) 10.12 APRIL 2027 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Olive flowering window for 2027/28 begins, cycle restart Mid-April IOC Mario Solinas Quality Awards Late April Spanish Junta de Andalucia 2026/27 final figures 10.13 MAY 2027 Date Event ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Throughout Mediterranean flowering for 2027/28 underway Late May Cycle: this brief becomes the foundation for the May 2027 yearly intelligence brief ================================================================================ 11. CLIMATE AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (2027 TO 2035) ================================================================================ The 12-month forward calendar is operational. The 24- to 120-month view is strategic. Three things to internalize. 11.1 MEDITERRANEAN VOLATILITY IS STRUCTURALLY RISING The 2022/23 trough and the 2024/25 peak are not anomalies, they are the new distribution. Expect at least one drought-driven price spike in the next five years and at least one bumper-crop price collapse, with a strong probability of both within the same 24-month window. Plan for this; do not model around an "average" year. 11.2 NORTHWARD MIGRATION IS REAL BUT SLOW Olive cultivation is expanding in Piedmont, Trentino, southern France, the Balkans, and parts of the Caucasus. None of this is at scale yet, but the direction of travel is set. By 2035 there will likely be material production from northern Italy that does not exist today. 11.3 NORTH AFRICA'S COMPETITIVE POSITION IS BIFURCATED Morocco benefits from MAFTA structurally, has irrigation expansion underway, and has strong long-term water reserves relative to southern Spain. Tunisia has volume but a pricing crisis and a chronic bulk-export problem. Algeria, Libya, and Egypt have domestic-only profiles. The window for Morocco-origin premium brands to establish US shelf presence is widest now and gradually narrows over the next 5 to 10 years as climate-driven Spanish supply contraction creates opportunities other origins compete for. For Daralbeida, the 2027-2030 strategic narrative is: 1. Year 2 (2027): scale Amazon FBA; introduce 1L SKU; explore specialty retail (Whole Foods tier); NYIOOC submission. 2. Year 3 (2028): DTC expansion; explore BIB 3L bag-in-box for HORECA; consider Spain or Portugal market test. 3. Year 4 (2029): broader specialty retail; consider mid-market retail (Sprouts, Trader Joe's tier); brand equity tier pricing. 4. Year 5 (2030): full multi-channel; consider production-side vertical integration (estate acquisition or limited partnership relationship). ================================================================================ 12. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR DARALBEIDA ================================================================================ Six implications, each tied to a specific year-ahead action. 12.1 IMPLICATION 1, SUPPLY WINDOW IS OPEN; ACT Moroccan producer surplus, soft domestic prices, MAFTA mechanics functional. The next time this combination of factors aligns may be 2028/29 or later (alternate-bearing biology). Move producer qualification under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001 to 3 PRIMARY-tier suppliers across two regions before the 2026/27 harvest tightens market psychology. 12.2 IMPLICATION 2, TARIFF SCENARIO PLANNING IS PRE-WORK FOR JULY 24 Re-run the Daralbeida Landed Cost Calculator under three scenarios: 0%, 10%, 15% Section 122 successor. Build the investor narrative on relative position ("Morocco not in Section 301 cohort, paying same baseline as everyone else, with full MAFTA mechanics restored on expiry") rather than absolute zero-duty claims. Confirm the BH preference indicator filing protocol with US trade counsel, this preserves position regardless of the 122 outcome. 12.3 IMPLICATION 3, TUNISIA COUNTER-NARRATIVE IS BRAND WORK Tunisia is taking the value-tier slot in the US olive oil shelf. The competitive risk to Daralbeida is perception drift: "North African olive oil equals value priced." Daralbeida brand materials must reference Morocco specifically, not "North African" generic. Lead with FFA 0.5% maximum specification, polyphenol level, harvest year, single-estate provenance, objective premium markers that distinguish from bulk Tunisian. 12.4 IMPLICATION 4, ITALIAN PREMIUM COMPRESSION IS PRICING ROOM Italian Bari benchmark fell from EUR 9 or above to EUR 6.90/kg. Italian organic into US -38% by value. Daralbeida's USD 26 per 0.5L launch tier is set against USD 32 or above Italian premium positioning. As Italian premium compresses, Daralbeida's value narrative strengthens at the same retail price. No need to chase the Italian price down; hold the Launch Tier and let velocity deliver Year 1. 12.5 IMPLICATION 5, STANDARDS MOVEMENT IS TAILWIND HR 6747 (US federal SOI), Spain Control Plan 2026-2030, EU Court of Auditors enforcement push, NAOOA legal action, the regulatory direction of travel is toward authentication, traceability, and premium-tier protection. Daralbeida's two-gate QC system, producer ID format, and FFA 0.5% maximum specification sit comfortably above any threshold these regimes will set. The brand's regulatory posture is defensive without effort. 12.6 IMPLICATION 6, DEMAND DESTRUCTION IS NOT THE FORECAST USDA records 478,000 MT US consumption in 2025/26 despite the tariff regime, inflation, and -22% import volume contraction. Premium tier is the resilient sub-segment. Velocity over margin is the correct Year 1 KPI. The three-tier listing-maturity pricing architecture (Launch USD 26 / Demand-Signal USD 28-29 / Brand-Equity USD 32) was designed for exactly the demand environment Daralbeida is launching into. ================================================================================ 13. KEY RISKS RANKED ================================================================================ Rank Risk ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1 Section 122 successor regime adverse to Morocco specifically (low likelihood; Morocco not in 301 cohort). Probability MEDIUM; Impact HIGH 2 Morocco 2026/27 weather-driven crop collapse (alternate-bearing plus climate volatility). Probability MEDIUM-HIGH; Impact HIGH 3 Producer concentration on 1-2 suppliers going into Year 2 if SOP execution slow. Probability HIGH; Impact MED 4 US consumer demand softens further if macro deteriorates. Probability MEDIUM; Impact MED 5 Tunisia narrative captures "North African" perception in US shelf. Probability HIGH; Impact MED 6 Italian premium compression accelerates and Daralbeida USD 26 looks expensive relative. Probability LOW; Impact MED 7 Andalusia heat dome / climate event spikes 2026/27 prices. Probability LOW; Impact HIGH 8 EU-US framework deal disrupts current Spain/Italy tariff parity. Probability LOW; Impact LOW 9 Xylella spreads to Morocco (long-tail, monitor). Probability VERY LOW; Impact HIGH 10 Spanish AD/CVD or trade case targets North African origins. Probability VERY LOW; Impact LOW ================================================================================ 14. SOURCES ================================================================================ Production and price data: International Olive Council Statistics Dashboard, monthly sector statistics. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply & Distribution. USDA Morocco's 2026 FTA Tariff Schedule, January 2026. Junta de Andalucia AFORO tables. AICA Spanish Olive Oil Industry Authority monthly stocks. ISMEA Italy. ICQRF Frantoio Italia. Pool Red benchmark. Oleista origin price tracker. IMF / FRED Global Olive Oil Price (POLVOILUSDM). ONAGRI Tunisia. Onssa.gov.ma. Interprolive Morocco. Market analysis: Olive Oil Times daily coverage and harvest surveys. Certified Origins monthly market reports. Wikifarmer monthly updates. Olive Oil Culture. Tridge global analytics. Filippo Berio UK and Bono USA executive commentary. Italian Food News. Euronews Business. Trade and policy: US Customs and Border Protection MAFTA pages and FAQs. USTR Morocco FTA documents. Federal Register notices on Section 122, Section 232, Section 301. Foley & Lardner LLP client briefings on tariff regimes. Global Trade Alert IEEPA-to-Section-122 transition. Tariffstool, GingerControl, Peacock Tariff Consulting analyses. Court of International Trade ruling. Proclamation 11012. Congress.gov H.R. 6747 (Olive Oil Standards Act). Climate and structural: Nature Plants on Levant olive oil climate threat (2023). Communications Earth & Environment on water stress and solar activity (April 2025). Agronomy (MDPI) on CMIP6 modeling of Iberian Peninsula MOC (September 2025). Sustainability Science on climate change and olive oil production (October 2025). Probable Futures and Certified Origins on drought projection maps. IPCC AR6 Mediterranean hotspot designation. Fraud and consumer protection: Europol Operation OPSON XIII summary documents. Carabinieri NAS communications. EU Court of Auditors olive oil control audit (January 2026). NAOOA quality testing reports. Food Fraud Advisors. ================================================================================ 15. AI PROMPTS ================================================================================ The following copy-paste prompt regenerates or refreshes this annual brief for a new reporting period. Replace the bracketed tokens with current values before running. ================================================================================ START OF PROMPT ================================================================================ You are a market intelligence analyst for Daralbeida, a Morocco-origin premium extra virgin olive oil brand preparing for US market launch. Produce an annual olive oil intelligence brief covering the global olive oil market for the twelve months ending [REPORTING_PERIOD_END_DATE], with a structured twelve-month forward view to [FORWARD_HORIZON_END_DATE]. Build the brief only on primary research drawn from the International Olive Council, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Spanish AICA, Tunisian ONAGRI, the IMF/FRED Global Olive Oil Price benchmark, Olive Oil Times, Certified Origins monthly market reports, Federal Register notices, Congress.gov, PitchBook M&A records, and peer-reviewed climate research. Structure the document with these sections in order: Purpose and Scope, Executive Summary, the multi-year story, current standing with six anchor data points (production, stocks, prices, US tariff status, demand, industry activity), structural drivers, demand-side picture by segment (US retail, EU retail, emerging markets), trade policy and regulatory landscape (focus on US Section 122 and Section 301, MAFTA preference indicator BH under HTS 1509.10.4000, EU Mercosur and India FTAs, the Olive Oil Standards Act), industry dynamics (consolidation, fraud, quality competitions, health research), cyclical drivers over the twelve-month horizon, a month-by-month forward calendar, the long-term climate outlook, strategic implications for Daralbeida tied to the three-tier pricing architecture (Launch USD [LAUNCH_PRICE] / Demand-Signal USD [DEMAND_SIGNAL_PRICE] / Brand-Equity USD [BRAND_EQUITY_PRICE] per 0.5L), a ranked key-risk register, and sources. Preserve every figure, price, percentage, date, company name, and citation exactly. Emphasize the structural MAFTA advantage for Morocco-origin oil and the producer qualification priority under DAB-SOP-SOURCING-001. Output in BPGP v3.1 plain-text format. ================================================================================ END OF PROMPT ================================================================================ ================================================================================ 16. REVISION HISTORY ================================================================================ Version and Date Author and Summary of Changes ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1.0, 2026-05-10 PYB / Daralbeida. Initial issue (BPGP reformat of DARX-INTEL-YEARLY-001 dated 2026-05-10). 1.1, 2026-06-13 PYB / Daralbeida. Reformatted to BPGP v3.1 standard: restructured all tables to U+2500 separators with space-aligned two-column layouts, single-line paragraphs, added AI Prompts, Revision History, Acronyms, and Glossary as the mandatory closing sections. No substantive content or data changed. ================================================================================ 17. ACRONYMS ================================================================================ ACoS Advertising Cost of Sale (Amazon PPC metric) AEMO Asociacion Espanola de Municipios del Olivo AFORO Junta de Andalucia annual production forecast AICA Spanish Olive Oil Industry Authority AR6 Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC) BH Special Program Indicator for the US-Morocco FTA preference BIB Bag-In-Box (packaging format) CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPE CBP refund portal name CBP US Customs and Border Protection CIT Court of International Trade (US) CMIP6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 COA Certificate of Analysis COO Chief Operating Officer COOC California Olive Oil Council DAB Daralbeida (operational document prefix) DTC Direct-to-Consumer ECJ European Court of Justice EFSA European Food Safety Authority ENEA Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development EU European Union EUR Euro (currency) EVOO Extra Virgin Olive Oil FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA) FBA Fulfilled by Amazon FDA US Food and Drug Administration FFA Free Fatty Acid FOB Free On Board (Incoterm) FRED Federal Reserve Economic Data FTA Free Trade Agreement HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices HORECA Hotel, Restaurant, Cafe (foodservice channel) HR House of Representatives bill designation (US Congress) HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule (United States) IEEPA International Emergency Economic Powers Act IMF International Monetary Fund IOC International Olive Council IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITC International Trade Commission (US) Kg Kilogram KPI Key Performance Indicator Kt Thousand tonnes L Litre LCL Less than Container Load MAD Moroccan Dirham (currency) MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement MEP Member of the European Parliament MFN Most Favored Nation (tariff rate) MOC Maximum Oil Content MT Metric tonne Mt Million tonnes NAOOA North American Olive Oil Association NAS Carabinieri Anti-Adulteration and Public Health Unit (Italy) NOP National Organic Program (USDA) NYIOOC New York International Olive Oil Competition ONAGRI National Observatory of Agriculture (Tunisia) ONSSA National Office of Food Safety (Morocco) OPSON Europol/Interpol food fraud operation series PDO Protected Designation of Origin PGI Protected Geographical Indication PLMA Private Label Manufacturers Association PO Purchase Order PPC Pay Per Click Q1 First quarter of calendar year Q3 Third quarter of calendar year Q4 Fourth quarter of calendar year QC Quality Control REMOA Spanish olive oil traceability tool SCOTUS Supreme Court of the United States SIAN Italian olive oil traceability system SIMO Spanish olive oil traceability system SKU Stock Keeping Unit SOI Standard of Identity SOP Standard Operating Procedure T Tonnes (metric) US United States USD US Dollar (currency) USDA United States Department of Agriculture USMCA United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement USTR Office of the United States Trade Representative WTO World Trade Organization YoY Year-on-year ================================================================================ 18. GLOSSARY ================================================================================ Alternate-Bearing The biological cycle in which olive trees produce high yields one year and significantly lower yields the following year as the tree allocates energy to vegetative recovery. Modern irrigation and pruning practices reduce but do not eliminate the cycle. Brand-Equity Tier Third tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 32 per 0.5L bottle. CMIP6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The current generation of coordinated international climate model output used by the IPCC for assessment reports. Demand-Signal Tier Second tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 28 to 29 per 0.5L bottle. Indexed Pricing Contractual pricing mechanism where the unit price paid is calculated by reference to a published benchmark plus an agreed differential. Launch Tier First tier of Daralbeida's pricing architecture at USD 26 per 0.5L bottle. MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement. Entered into force January 1, 2006. Provides duty-free entry of Moroccan olive oil under HTS 1509.10.4000 when claimed via Special Program Indicator BH on the customs entry summary, with full implementation completed January 1, 2023. Maximum Oil Content The peak percentage of oil accumulation in olives during the maturation cycle. CMIP6 projections suggest MOC reductions of up to 17.5 percentage points in southern Iberian Peninsula by 2040-2069. Pool Red Industry pricing benchmark for Spanish Pool Red Jaen weekly producer prices. Functions as the de facto global olive oil price reference. Section 122 Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974, authorising temporary import surcharges of up to 15% ad valorem for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits. Invoked February 24, 2026; statutory expiry July 24, 2026. Section 301 Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974, authorising USTR investigations and country-specific tariffs in response to unfair trade practices. USTR opened investigations into 16 economies on March 11, 2026. Morocco is not among the 16. Single-Estate A provenance claim indicating that all olives in the product originate from a single producer estate, with chain-of-custody documented from grove to bottle. Xylella Fastidiosa A xylem-limited bacterial pathogen that causes Olive Quick Decline Syndrome and other plant diseases. First detected in Italy (Apulia) in 2013 and uncontained as of March 2026 per EFSA assessment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_YEARLY_001 Version : 1.1 Status : ACTIVE Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Annual Next Review Due : 2027-05-10 Annual Review : Mandatory refresh upon (a) Section 122 resolution by July 24, 2026, (b) Mediterranean flowering window outcome by late June 2026, or (c) any material change in the trade-policy regime affecting Morocco-origin olive oil Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Distribution : Internal, founder and advisory; sharable with investors and named operators under non-disclosure Review Triggers : Section 122 resolution by July 24, 2026; Mediterranean flowering window outcome by late June 2026; any material change in the trade-policy regime affecting Morocco-origin olive oil COMPLIANCE : All production figures cited for the 2025/26 crop year are provisional pending final IOC publication. The Section 122 status is time-sensitive; the trade-policy section is accurate to May 10, 2026 and must be re-read against current Federal Register notices before any external citation. The pricing figures (USD 26 / USD 28-29 / USD 32) are the controlling Daralbeida pricing architecture; any external citation must preserve all three tiers and the listing-maturity logic and must not abbreviate to a single price. Revision History : See Section 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF DOCUMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------