Section 8.2 · Revenue Forecast

Amazon vs DTC — Cost Shift, Not Cost Saving

Amazon's fees bundle services the business still has to pay for on DTC — just through different vendors at different rates. The comparison below shows what each Amazon fee covers and what replaces it on DTC.

Amazon fee Amount What it covers DTC equivalent DTC cost Net effect
FBA fulfillment fee −$3.22 Pick, pack, ship to customer. Amazon's negotiated carrier rates are subsidised by volume. Outbound shipping — UPS/USPS for a ~1.5 lb glass bottle ~−$6–9 Costs more
Storage fee −$0.30 Warehouse space at FBA. Includes receiving and bin assignment. 3PL storage — comparable unit rate ~−$0.30 Same
Referral fee — discovery −$2.40
(~50% of 15%)
Access to 170M Prime customers. Organic search ranking. Category placement. DTC customer acquisition — Google Shopping, social, email. CAC is highly variable. ~−$5–20
per order
Likely more — early
Referral fee — trust & service −$2.40
(~50% of 15%)
Prime badge. A-to-Z guarantee. Customer service handling. Returns processing. Brand trust (built over time, not bought). CS contractor or founder time. Returns policy. Intangible / overhead Shifted
Platform fee (DTC only) Not applicable on Amazon. Shopify + payment processing −$1.28 New cost
Total explicit fees −$8.32 −$7.58–$30+
Verdict
The only genuine fee elimination on DTC is the 15% Amazon referral fee — $4.80 at $32. This is real and structurally permanent. Everything else is cost-shifting: outbound shipping replaces FBA at higher cost; customer acquisition replaces organic Amazon discovery at variable and often higher cost; CS handling shifts from Amazon to the business. DTC unit economics improve materially only when repeat purchase rate is high enough that CAC amortises across multiple orders — which requires an established email list and brand recognition that take 12–24 months to build. DTC is not launched for Year 1 margin. It is launched for customer data, repeat purchase economics, and reduced platform dependency.
Net-to-seller per unit at $32 — platform fees only vs all real costs
Amazon referral 15%
FBA fulfillment $3.22
Storage $0.30
DTC platform 4%
DTC outbound shipping
DTC CAC — early (yr 2)
DTC CAC — mature (yr 3+)
Seller keeps
$32
Amazon
Referral−$4.80
FBA−$3.22
Seller keeps$23.68
$23.68
net / unit
same $32 customer price — what DTC actually costs
$32 DTC
fees only
Before shipping & CAC$30.72
$30.72
before real costs
$32 DTC
Year 2 (early)
Shipping−$7.00
CAC — early~−$12
Seller keeps~$10.44
~$10
after real costs
$32 DTC
Year 3+ (mature)
Shipping−$7.00
CAC mature~−$5
Seller keeps~$17.44
~$17
after real costs

DTC outbound shipping estimated at $7.00/unit for a 0.5L glass bottle (~1.5 lbs) via UPS Ground or USPS Priority Mail — both more expensive than Amazon's subsidised FBA fulfillment rate of $3.22. Early CAC (~$12/order) reflects low email list volume and paid acquisition dependency in Year 2; mature CAC (~$5/order) assumes repeat buyer rate of 35%+ and email-driven reorder contribution in Year 3+. Amazon row shows explicit channel fees only — PPC cost on Amazon is a separate operating expense modelled in Section 8.3, not a channel fee deduction.


Section 8.2 · Revenue Forecast

Three-Year Net Revenue by Channel

Net-to-seller after channel fee deductions only. Amazon fees applied at actual ASP per tier. DTC at 4% platform fee. Shipping and CAC are operating costs in Section 8.3, not channel fee deductions — consistent with how Amazon PPC is treated on the Amazon channel.

$88.1K
Year 1 · 4,000 units · Amazon only
$289.3K
Year 2 · 12,000 units · Amazon + DTC
$544.9K
Year 3 · 22,000 units · 3 channels
Amazon FBA
DTC (daralbeida.com)
Specialty Retail
Year 1 $88,100; Year 2 $289,300; Year 3 $544,900.

Net revenue = gross less channel fee deductions only (Amazon referral + FBA + storage; DTC platform fee; specialty retail wholesale pricing). PPC, outbound DTC shipping, and DTC CAC are operating expenses in Section 8.3 — same treatment as Amazon PPC, which is also not deducted here. Year 1 Amazon: 300 × $18.58 + 1,700 × $20.70 + 2,000 × $23.68 = $88,100. Year 2 Amazon: 9,600 × $22.28 net = $213,888 rounded. DTC Year 2: 2,400 × $30.72 = $73,728 (rounded; mix includes some units at editorial-tier pricing). Year 3 Amazon: 13,200 × $23.68 = $312,576. DTC: 5,500 × $32.64 = $179,520. Specialty: 3,300 × $16 = $52,800.